Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1860 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into central and southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011807Z - 012000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across eastern Alabama into central and southeast Georgia will pose a risk of damaging downburst winds through late afternoon. The overall severe threat will remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and echo top trends show intensifying thunderstorms along a weak surface confluence band stretching from far southeast AL into southeast GA. Incipient thunderstorms are also noted across eastern AL/northwest GA along a weak surface cold front. Although forcing for ascent across the region remains weak, strong diurnal heating of a weakly capped air mass is supporting uninhibited near-surface parcel ascent within these zones of modest low-level ascent. Very weak mid and upper-level flow over the region will favor a combination of short-lived single cells and multi-cell clusters, and will largely limit the potential for a more robust severe weather threat. However, further heating through late afternoon should allow for MLCAPE values to reach 2500-3500 J/kg as well as promote 0-2 km lapse rates of around 7-8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment is favorable for strong to severe wet downbursts associated with the deeper, more intense convective cores. While such downbursts typically produce gusts of 40-55 mph, sporadic and isolated instances of 60-65 mph winds will be possible - especially if a more consolidated, cold-pool-driven cluster can become establish through peak heating. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31658529 31738576 31978610 32578660 33038690 33578688 33868676 34038648 34208562 34158481 33928442 33578390 33308357 33068322 32858284 32678230 32508164 32328119 32218091 32048083 31878092 31738109 31608130 31608162 31658529 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in the High Plains during the afternoon Sunday. Some storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in Southwest/Great Basin on Sunday. A shortwave trough will move into the Northwest into the northern Great Basin by late afternoon into the evening. An MCV evolving out of High Plains convection on Saturday appears probable in the southern Plains. Some mid-level flow enhancement will continue over the central/southern Rockies. ...Southern High Plains into Northwest Texas... Some convection may be ongoing early Sunday morning in association with an MCV. There is some potential for this activity to reintensify as surface heating increases. However, model guidance has been uniform in dissipating this convection before that occurs. To its west, the lee trough and an outflow boundary will potentially promote convective development later in the afternoon. With the Southwest ridge amplifying and the region being in the wake of the earlier convection/MCV, there is still some uncertainty as to how much convection will develop. The environment, however, will be supportive of organized storms. 40-50 kts of northwesterly shear would result in supercells. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main threats, but augmented low-level shear along the outflow could promote some tornado risk. Some upscale growth would be expected by evening as a modest low-level jet develops in the Permian Basin/South Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in storm development and coverage. ...Central into Northern High Plains... With moisture remaining up against the terrain, additional strong to severe storms are possible from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills. Aside from the terrain, the weak surface trough will also serve as a focus for convective development. Shear will generally be weaker in these areas, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear could promote a few marginal supercells and multicell clusters. Storms may not remain organized for a long duration as upper-level flow is weak. The strongest activity could produce large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Oregon... With the approach of the trough, scattered storms are possible in central Oregon in the Blue Mountains. Though buoyancy will be limited, adequate effective shear could promote marginally organized storms. Severe wind gusts would be the main hazard given inverted-v profiles. Confidence in the coverage of strong to severe storms is too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/01/2025 Read more