Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward within the northern periphery of the ridge centered over southern AZ/NM, reaching the central Rockies around 18-21Z. Ascent attendant to this wave will foster convective initiation over the high terrain during the afternoon while the deep westerly flow encourages storms to move off the terrain into the High Plains. The airmass immediately downstream will be warm and deeply mixed, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints likely in the mid 50s. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help promote moderate buoyancy within this warm and modestly moist environment, which should allow for a few stronger storms. Large hail is possible within the early-stage cellular development, particularly over the higher terrain. While in this environment, storms will likely trend towards a more outflow dominant structure. However, greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely be in place farther east (from the CO/KS border vicinity southward into the northwest TX Panhandle), with some potential for reintensification of the ongoing storms and/or new development along surging outflows. Resultant clustering/upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining any stronger clusters while also encouraging a more south-southeastward motion into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts are the primary risk within these clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support strong downbursts within any more persistent convection. ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward within the northern periphery of the ridge centered over southern AZ/NM, reaching the central Rockies around 18-21Z. Ascent attendant to this wave will foster convective initiation over the high terrain during the afternoon while the deep westerly flow encourages storms to move off the terrain into the High Plains. The airmass immediately downstream will be warm and deeply mixed, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints likely in the mid 50s. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help promote moderate buoyancy within this warm and modestly moist environment, which should allow for a few stronger storms. Large hail is possible within the early-stage cellular development, particularly over the higher terrain. While in this environment, storms will likely trend towards a more outflow dominant structure. However, greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely be in place farther east (from the CO/KS border vicinity southward into the northwest TX Panhandle), with some potential for reintensification of the ongoing storms and/or new development along surging outflows. Resultant clustering/upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining any stronger clusters while also encouraging a more south-southeastward motion into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts are the primary risk within these clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support strong downbursts within any more persistent convection. ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward within the northern periphery of the ridge centered over southern AZ/NM, reaching the central Rockies around 18-21Z. Ascent attendant to this wave will foster convective initiation over the high terrain during the afternoon while the deep westerly flow encourages storms to move off the terrain into the High Plains. The airmass immediately downstream will be warm and deeply mixed, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints likely in the mid 50s. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help promote moderate buoyancy within this warm and modestly moist environment, which should allow for a few stronger storms. Large hail is possible within the early-stage cellular development, particularly over the higher terrain. While in this environment, storms will likely trend towards a more outflow dominant structure. However, greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely be in place farther east (from the CO/KS border vicinity southward into the northwest TX Panhandle), with some potential for reintensification of the ongoing storms and/or new development along surging outflows. Resultant clustering/upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining any stronger clusters while also encouraging a more south-southeastward motion into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts are the primary risk within these clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support strong downbursts within any more persistent convection. ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward within the northern periphery of the ridge centered over southern AZ/NM, reaching the central Rockies around 18-21Z. Ascent attendant to this wave will foster convective initiation over the high terrain during the afternoon while the deep westerly flow encourages storms to move off the terrain into the High Plains. The airmass immediately downstream will be warm and deeply mixed, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints likely in the mid 50s. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help promote moderate buoyancy within this warm and modestly moist environment, which should allow for a few stronger storms. Large hail is possible within the early-stage cellular development, particularly over the higher terrain. While in this environment, storms will likely trend towards a more outflow dominant structure. However, greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely be in place farther east (from the CO/KS border vicinity southward into the northwest TX Panhandle), with some potential for reintensification of the ongoing storms and/or new development along surging outflows. Resultant clustering/upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining any stronger clusters while also encouraging a more south-southeastward motion into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts are the primary risk within these clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support strong downbursts within any more persistent convection. ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more