Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. ..Smith/Supinie.. 08/02/2025 Read more