Severe Storms

MD 1866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central into eastern MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012225Z - 020030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed late this afternoon across parts of MT, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaching the northern Rockies. Moderate buoyancy will result in occasionally vigorous updrafts, especially near a weak surface boundary across central MT, where MLCAPE has increased above 2000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses. Deep-layer flow is relatively weak across the region, but some veering with height is supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, and a few stronger multicells and clusters may evolve with time. Hail and strong to severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms, though the lack of stronger deep-layer shear is expected to keep the threat rather isolated into early evening. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48271264 48601014 48450783 47760655 45660600 45140646 45010800 45800892 46731077 47261263 48271264 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-105-117-137- 012340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WY into western SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565... Valid 012337Z - 020100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 continues. SUMMARY...A severe-storm threat will continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell that earlier developed near an MCV across northwest SD has evolved into a small bowing segment, with recent vigorous updraft development noted along its southern flank. With some increase in the low-level jet expected with time this evening, this small cluster may persist and grow in size, with some potential for supercell development along its southern periphery. Strong to severe gusts remain possible, especially with the bowing portion of the cluster. If any supercells can develop within the cluster or along the southern flank, some enhancement to low-level SRH (from both the MCV and the nocturnally increasing low-level jet) would support a threat for a tornado, in addition to large hail. Farther southwest, attempts at isolated storm development continue over the Black Hills, and an isolated supercell or two could evolve with time. Meanwhile, storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity through late afternoon across parts of central into northeast WY. While deep-layer flow/shear is somewhat weaker compared to areas farther east, steep low/midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could support a few strong cells or clusters into this evening capable of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. WW 565 was recently expanded across parts of northeast WY in order to cover this threat. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44860682 44980326 45930256 45860106 45450073 44700065 43590254 43080506 43020560 42820661 43090689 43740673 44380678 44860682 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1867 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WY...THE SOUTHWESTERN NE PANHANDLE...AND NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0558 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast WY...the southwestern NE Panhandle...and northeast CO Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 012258Z - 020100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk should continue increasing across Tornado Watch 564, especially with east-southeastward extent into this evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes all remain possible. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and IR satellite imagery show an increase in thunderstorm intensity across far southeast WY -- generally focused along an outflow boundary that moved into the area. These storms are now impinging on an axis of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and steep low/midlevel lapse rates. This moderately unstable air mass (around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CYS VWP and mesoanalysis) should support continued intensification of these storms, especially as they continue east-southeastward into this evening. While strong outflow generation may continue to promote clustering/localized upscale growth (with a related severe wind risk), the favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy and sufficient boundary-layer helicity (around 130 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) will also support embedded supercell structures -- capable of producing sporadic large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41310522 41580424 41990406 41990365 41790293 41440262 41000279 40640330 40440416 40570474 41020529 41310522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central into eastern MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012225Z - 020030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed late this afternoon across parts of MT, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaching the northern Rockies. Moderate buoyancy will result in occasionally vigorous updrafts, especially near a weak surface boundary across central MT, where MLCAPE has increased above 2000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses. Deep-layer flow is relatively weak across the region, but some veering with height is supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, and a few stronger multicells and clusters may evolve with time. Hail and strong to severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms, though the lack of stronger deep-layer shear is expected to keep the threat rather isolated into early evening. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48271264 48601014 48450783 47760655 45660600 45140646 45010800 45800892 46731077 47261263 48271264 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1865 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1865 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012150Z - 012345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread eastward into this evening, posing a risk of isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the I-25 corridor in east-central/southeast CO into northeast NM, which are likely being aided by a passing upper-level jet streak evident in water-vapor imagery and VWP data. While instability is marginal along the higher terrain, steep deep-layer lapse rates and an elongated upper-level hodograph will support isolated large hail with the ongoing high-based storms as they advance eastward across the I-25 corridor. With time, storms will move eastward into an increasingly warm/moist air mass over the CO Plains. Here, higher surface-based buoyancy and an elongated/straight mid/upper-level hodograph (around 25-30 kt of effective shear) should favor a couple loosely organized eastward-moving clusters, capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail. Given the modest deep-layer shear, storms may tend to be outflow dominant, and a watch is not currently expected at this time. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36580581 37090566 37600510 38460497 39100476 39530460 39690434 39650361 39470289 38800263 37020293 35500360 35350407 35310511 35560553 36580581 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW LAR TO 20 SSE TOR TO 50 W CDR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867 ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-020040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-020040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC021-020040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 564 TORNADO CO NE WY 012045Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon and persist through the evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). A couple of tornadoes are also possible mainly towards the late afternoon and early evening when the peak supercell phase is forecast. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster may subsequently occur this evening and the risk for severe gusts may correspondingly increase. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Scottsbluff NE to 30 miles west southwest of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

MD 1864 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012057Z - 012300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The evolution of a supercell into a small organized cluster appears possible through 5-7 PM MDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail, then increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Convection has undergone notable recent intensification within an isolated cell on the southwestern flank of a remnant slow moving MCV. This is embedded with generally weak deep-layer mean flow on the northern periphery of broad mid-level ridging. However, forcing for ascent and modest shear associated with veering profiles with height, near a focused area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support the continuing evolution of a supercell to an upscale growing organized cluster into this evening. This will be aided by continuing inflow of relatively moist air characterized by moderate CAPE, within lee surface troughing southwest of Buffalo through areas west-southwest of Mobridge. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 45370332 45530284 45260173 44960251 45160332 45370332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-105-117-137- 012340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-105-117-137- 012340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 565 SEVERE TSTM SD 012155Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell/small cluster may continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter across parts of northwest South Dakota. Over the next several hours, additional thunderstorms may form and consolidate into a bowing cluster with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Rapid City SD to 80 miles northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW LAR TO 30 SSW TOR TO 20 ENE DGW. ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-012340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-012340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-012340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0565 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1863 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of western Nebraska and adjacent southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011951Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development, including the evolution of a few supercells, appears probable through 3-5 PM MDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Downstream of an upper jet nosing inland of the central California coast through the Great Basin, modest surface troughing is slowly deepening to the lee of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. Low-level moisture return on southerly flow to the east of the trough axis is ongoing, and contributing to substantive destabilization in the presence of steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. This now appears to include moderately large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, where deep-layer shear (mostly due to pronounced veering of winds with height, in the presence of otherwise weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow) appears at least marginally conducive to organized convection, including supercells. High-based convection has been initiating and increasing in coverage near and west of the Colorado Front Range through the Laramies the past couple of hours. Gradually, as mid/upper support for this activity shifts to the east of the higher terrain, scattered thunderstorm activity will begin to develop east of the higher terrain into the stronger potential instability across the adjacent plains. As this occurs, substantive intensification appears probable, including the evolution of a few supercells posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two by 21-23Z. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43190420 42870349 41300299 39730202 38690302 38990361 39970331 40430431 40920475 41440499 42250485 42570510 43190420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Early in the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the Mississippi Valley, as a ridge builds northward across the High Plains. To the east of the ridge, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop Monday afternoon over parts of the High Plains. Isolated severe storms that form near the instability axis could pose a severe threat from the afternoon into the evening, but limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat localized. On Tuesday, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the trough in the afternoon could be associated with an isolated severe threat. The models suggest that this feature will move into northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could result in scattered thunderstorm development early in the day on Wednesday over parts of the eastern Dakotas. The trough is forecast to exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. In the wake of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development could re-develop across the northern Plains late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These storms could be associated with isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass should be in place by afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a convective cluster will develop Thursday evening over parts of the eastern Dakotas, with the storms moving east-southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. Considering that moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, these storms would be associated with a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, predictability at this extended range is low, mainly due to issues concerning the trough timing and parameter magnitudes. A severe threat will again be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains, as a mid-level trough develops and approaches the region. On Sunday, predictability again is low due to similar issues. Read more