Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

MD 2261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Areas affected...The Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia and southeast Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111817Z - 111945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will increase this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. DISCUSSION...A weakly unstable environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) has spread across much of the eastern Carolinas and into far southeast Virginia where mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present. Strong ascent within strengthening tropospheric flow has kept widespread precipitation across much of the warm sector which has limited instability. Some weak line segments/bowing segments have developed across central North Carolina into southeast Virginia, but it has remained mostly sub-severe due to the weak instability. Additional line segments are trying to develop along the synoptic front, but are embedded within moderate rainfall with minimal instability at this time. As the synoptic front sharpens and strengthens more through the afternoon and starts to accelerate east, expect additional strengthening, perhaps with the front catching up to/combining with the ongoing line segments across central North Carolina. If/when this occurs is when the primary damaging wind/isolated tornado threat is expected this afternoon given the very strong tropospheric flow (65 knots at 1km and over 100 knots at 7km per RAX VWP). Trends will be monitored through the afternoon and if a better organized, eastward accelerating convective line becomes more apparent this afternoon, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32547986 32158040 32308070 32728072 34487967 36127832 37457705 38267596 38337536 38257499 36977584 36497576 36007549 35597535 35197545 35087579 34797628 34517651 34637679 34567709 34367752 34067780 33777791 33827817 33797854 33577885 33347905 33107915 32547986 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111643Z - 111815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is rapidly approaching the FL Peninsula, preceded by a loosely organized QLCS. These storms are approaching a gradually destabilizing airmass, where surface temperatures are exceeding 80 F amid 70 F dewpoints (supporting 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer shear and some low-level shear also precedes the line, deep-layer ascent will continue to drift away from FL, so shear should gradually weaken through the day. However, a brief window of opportunity may exist for the buoyancy/shear parameter space to briefly coincide to support a couple of damaging gusts or a tornado with the stronger updrafts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062 27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220 27538263 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more