Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous discussion is on track. Diurnal mixing may create locally elevated fire weather risk Saturday afternoon across parts of southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern Texas Panhandle. Because of limited spatial scope of the risk and marginal fuel dryness, an Elevated area is unnecessary at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will continue to amplify across the Plains states as a mid-level trough approaches from the west and overspreads the Lower Colorado River Basin Saturday. Modest surface lee troughing should occur across the southern High Plains during the afternoon, promoting occasional bouts of locally Elevated dry and breezy conditions, especially near the Colorado/New Mexico/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle borders. Similar to Day 1, the localized nature of the Elevated conditions and mediocre fuel receptiveness suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0188 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR INTERIOR SANTA BARBRA COUNTY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS...LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Areas affected...Interior Santa Barbra County Interior Mountains...Los Angeles County Mountains...and Ventura County Mountains Concerning...Blizzard Valid 241805Z - 242200Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates exceeding 2 in/hr possible through the afternoon and evening. Blizzard conditions possible at times with near zero visibility. DISCUSSION...A low currently located off the coast of California continues to bring increasing mid-level moisture inland across Southern California across the axis of a strong 40 kt low-level jet. As the upper-level low advances eastward through the afternoon and evening, colder air will overspread the region with lapse rates steepening to around 6-6.5 C/km ahead of the frontal band. With destabilization and increasing frontal forcing, expect an increase in snowfall rates across the Santa Barbra Interior Mountains, Los Angeles County, and Ventura County Mountains through the afternoon and evening, with snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hr across the mountain passes. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts 55-70 mph (locally higher) will allow for blowing snow and reduced visibility. Blizzard conditions will be possible, with near white-out conditions and dangerous travel likely. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 02/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX... LAT...LON 34881993 35031972 34971950 34931920 34811878 34501791 34491744 34431730 34121743 34071764 34181805 34321832 34481873 34491916 34541951 34721985 34881993 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of southern California Saturday into Saturday night. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Relatively flat/featureless flow aloft will prevail across the eastern half of the U.S. this period, while in the West, a deep upper low -- initially off the California coast -- is forecast to advance east-southeastward into southern California/southern Nevada through the period. At the surface, a low associated with the upper system is forecast to shift across the Great Basin with time, while a trailing cold front traverses southern California and then Arizona/southern Utah. Given cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, very weak CAPE will persist across parts of coastal southern California and vicinity. As a result showers will persist across the area, as well as some lightning -- possibly with a frontal convective band early, but then later with post-frontal cold-core-type convection. Lack of ample instability should preclude any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, with surface high pressure prevailing east of the Rockies, thunderstorms are not expected over the remainder of the U.S. through Sunday morning. ..Goss.. 02/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible over parts of coastal southern California today. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low continues to drop southward off the CA coast. This gradual southward progression is forecast to persist throughout much of the period, before pivoting more southeastward early tomorrow morning. This progression is expected to result in the low being centered about 100-120 mi off the central CA coast by 12Z Saturday. Strong westerly/southwesterly flow currently stretches from central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great Lakes and Northeast. This flow is expected to trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging builds across most of the western CONUS ahead of the upper low. Additionally, subtropical ridging centered over south FL/Bahamas should persist throughout period while gradually drifting westward. A cold front extends from far southern NC west-southwestward across central portions of GA, AL, and MS. Modest warm-air advection and weak low-level convergence will contribute to showers and isolated thunderstorms north of the front from this morning into the early afternoon. Some additional storms are possible near the front across GA and southern SC this afternoon/evening. ...Coastal Southern CA... Lightning was observed about an hour ago within a deeper convective core over northern coastal Santa Barbara County CA. Sporadic lightning flashes will remain possible this morning into the afternoon, mainly over coastal portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties ahead of the primary frontal band. VTX VAD profiles continue to sample low-level veering with height that supports rotation within any more robust, long-lived updrafts. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #197, these low-topped storms ahead of and eventually along a cold front may produce locally damaging gusts, waterspout or a brief tornado. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/24/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 23 20:33:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 23 20:33:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 23 20:33:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remain valid. Isolated thunderstorms are still expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Isolated lightning flashes also remain possible from southwest Oregon southward into southern CA. Highest coverage is currently expected early tomorrow morning along the central CA coast as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low moves over the region. ..Mosier.. 02/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023/ ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians... Weak height rises are expected regionally through tonight. Weak but persistent warm/moist advection may influence thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with a few thunderstorms also possible in the more immediate vicinity of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front moving into/across western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, where thermodynamic profiles are marginally supportive of lightning flashes today. While deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy would be conditionally favorable, diminishing low-level shear combined with the nebulous forcing for ascent and relatively warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Coastal Central/Southern California... Primary vort max off the Washington/Oregon coast, embedded within the deep western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to just off the northern California coast through 12Z Friday. While surface dew points will be initially low from the 30s to low 40s F, an increase into the mid 40s is possible near the coast by early Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds may be sufficient for a few weakly rotating cells and locally strong convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the period. However, organized severe storms currently appear unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remain valid. Isolated thunderstorms are still expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Isolated lightning flashes also remain possible from southwest Oregon southward into southern CA. Highest coverage is currently expected early tomorrow morning along the central CA coast as the primary frontal band associated with the upper low moves over the region. ..Mosier.. 02/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023/ ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians... Weak height rises are expected regionally through tonight. Weak but persistent warm/moist advection may influence thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with a few thunderstorms also possible in the more immediate vicinity of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front moving into/across western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, where thermodynamic profiles are marginally supportive of lightning flashes today. While deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy would be conditionally favorable, diminishing low-level shear combined with the nebulous forcing for ascent and relatively warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Coastal Central/Southern California... Primary vort max off the Washington/Oregon coast, embedded within the deep western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to just off the northern California coast through 12Z Friday. While surface dew points will be initially low from the 30s to low 40s F, an increase into the mid 40s is possible near the coast by early Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds may be sufficient for a few weakly rotating cells and locally strong convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the period. However, organized severe storms currently appear unlikely. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Brief, localized areas of elevated fire risk are possible in eastern New Mexico on Friday afternoon. No changes are needed. ..Supinie.. 02/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough along the West Coast will continue to dig southward on Friday. As this occurs, the trough is expected to intensify. Downstream ridging will develop ahead of the trough in the Southwest and Southern Plains. At the surface, cold air will remain up against the southern Rockies. A very limited region of dry and breezy conditions is possible in eastern New Mexico. These conditions will generally be brief and fuels will not be particularly receptive. Fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Brief, localized areas of elevated fire risk are possible in eastern New Mexico on Friday afternoon. No changes are needed. ..Supinie.. 02/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough along the West Coast will continue to dig southward on Friday. As this occurs, the trough is expected to intensify. Downstream ridging will develop ahead of the trough in the Southwest and Southern Plains. At the surface, cold air will remain up against the southern Rockies. A very limited region of dry and breezy conditions is possible in eastern New Mexico. These conditions will generally be brief and fuels will not be particularly receptive. Fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of coastal and central California as well as southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong westerly/southwesterly flow is forecast to stretch from central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great Lakes and Northeast early Friday morning. This flow is expected to trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging builds across most of the western CONUS and a strong upper low drops southward along the CA coast. Additionally, subtropical ridging initially centered over south FL/Bahamas should gradually drift westward throughout the period. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low just off the ME coast southeastward through eastern NC across northern portions of the Southeast States into southeast TX. This boundary is expected to remain largely in place during the period while weakening. Showers with a few deeper cores are anticipated from northeast TX through the Mid-South into northern AL tomorrow morning, north of the cold front. A few lightning flashes are possible but modest lift coupled with warm temperatures aloft is expected to limit lightning production. A greater chance of thunderstorms exists across southeast GA/southern SC tomorrow afternoon along the front, which will be more progress here than areas farther west. Additional lightning flashes are expected within the persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low moving southward along the CA coast. Highest coverage is expected early in the period along the coast, but an additional increase in lightning is possible during the early afternoon across southern CA as the frontal band moves through. ..Mosier.. 02/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of coastal and central California as well as southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong westerly/southwesterly flow is forecast to stretch from central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great Lakes and Northeast early Friday morning. This flow is expected to trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging builds across most of the western CONUS and a strong upper low drops southward along the CA coast. Additionally, subtropical ridging initially centered over south FL/Bahamas should gradually drift westward throughout the period. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low just off the ME coast southeastward through eastern NC across northern portions of the Southeast States into southeast TX. This boundary is expected to remain largely in place during the period while weakening. Showers with a few deeper cores are anticipated from northeast TX through the Mid-South into northern AL tomorrow morning, north of the cold front. A few lightning flashes are possible but modest lift coupled with warm temperatures aloft is expected to limit lightning production. A greater chance of thunderstorms exists across southeast GA/southern SC tomorrow afternoon along the front, which will be more progress here than areas farther west. Additional lightning flashes are expected within the persistent forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low moving southward along the CA coast. Highest coverage is expected early in the period along the coast, but an additional increase in lightning is possible during the early afternoon across southern CA as the frontal band moves through. ..Mosier.. 02/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians... Weak height rises are expected regionally through tonight. Weak but persistent warm/moist advection may influence thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with a few thunderstorms also possible in the more immediate vicinity of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front moving into/across western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, where thermodynamic profiles are marginally supportive of lightning flashes today. While deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy would be conditionally favorable, diminishing low-level shear combined with the nebulous forcing for ascent and relatively warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms is low. ...Coastal Central/Southern California... Primary vort max off the Washington/Oregon coast, embedded within the deep western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to just off the northern California coast through 12Z Friday. While surface dew points will be initially low from the 30s to low 40s F, an increase into the mid 40s is possible near the coast by early Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds may be sufficient for a few weakly rotating cells and locally strong convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the period. However, organized severe storms currently appear unlikely. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/23/2023 Read more

WW 0041 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 41 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE POF TO 20 NW SPI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179 ..SUPINIE..02/22/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-055- 065-077-079-081-087-101-115-117-119-121-127-133-135-139-145-147- 151-153-157-159-163-165-167-173-181-183-189-191-199-222140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SANGAMON SHELBY UNION VERMILION WASHINGTON WAYNE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 41 TORNADO IL KY MO 221820Z - 230000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 41 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and south-central Illinois Western Kentucky Eastern and Southeast Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken line of storms is expected to intensify and race northeastward and pose a damaging wind and tornado risk, particularly in vicinity of a warm front from near/north of the St Louis area into south-central Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0179 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 41... FOR SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL INTO FAR WESTERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Areas affected...southeast MO into central/southern IL into far western IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 41... Valid 222027Z - 222230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible across tornado watch 41. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection has shown some better organization and modest intensification over the past 30-45 minutes, particularly as the line moves into east-central IL. Somewhat better heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F is likely responsible for convection become more surface-based compared to earlier in storm-scale evolution. A couple of measured severe gusts were noted just north of St. Louis, and damaging wind potential will continue across the remain of tornado watch 41. Some veering of low-level winds is noted in surface observations across southern IL. However, some southeasterly low-level winds are still noted closer to central IL nearer to the warm front and a weak surface low/triple point. Given the magnitude of low-level shear, a locally greater chance of a brief tornado may exist between the I-70 and I-64 corridors. Severe potential should wane with eastward extent into portions of western KY and IN and a downstream watch is not currently anticipated. ..Leitman.. 02/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39869002 40478726 39078715 37648821 37008938 37118989 37319035 38189037 39649018 39869002 Read more

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Areas affected...Western TN and northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222023Z - 222200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across western Tennessee this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A line of convection is ongoing near the Mississippi River, as sampled by WSR-88D radar. Ahead of this line, skies have cleared, which has resulted in temperatures into the upper 70s and dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s. Regional VWPs show strong wind profiles with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts and 50-60 kts of flow at 1 km ARL. Mesoanalysis and short-term RAP profiles indicate that buoyancy is relatively meager, due to warm mid-level temperatures. The meager buoyancy will limit severe potential, with a few damaging wind gusts expected due to the stronger low-level flow. While trends will be monitored, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 02/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 34218948 34118973 34019023 34219058 34519067 34909047 35549014 36238957 36508908 36538875 36308828 35688810 35018820 34478898 34218948 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest ensemble guidance maintains high confidence in the synoptic regime outlined in the previous discussion (below), and continues to show generally low probability for widespread elevated fire weather conditions (though locally elevated conditions are possible across West TX). ..Moore.. 02/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough and strong mid-level winds will remain across the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains through the afternoon. The strong flow across the southern Rockies will again promote a lee trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Breezy conditions will be possible in the southern High Plains, but RH values will generally be in the 20-30% range outside of the Big Bend. Only locally elevated fire weather is expected on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible across the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Mid MS Valley... Strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push quickly eastward across far east-central/southeast MO. The line remains free of lightning, and could be slightly elevated based on recent ACARS and modified RAP soundings. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, the LSX VAD continues to sample strong winds, including over 50 kt near 1 km AGL. These robust kinematics could still support occasionally strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado throughout the afternoon. ...Mid-South... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts will persist as the low-topped line moving across eastern AR into the Mid-South. ..Mosier.. 02/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023/ ...Ozarks/Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley... A compact shortwave trough and related speed max centered over eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas will continue to quickly race northeastward through tonight. Related wind fields will remain very strong, although the aforementioned system will gradually minor by late today while mid-level temperatures warm to its south. Initially, to the north of a warm front, ongoing elevated storms across east-central Illinois/west-central Indiana could pose an isolated/marginal severe hail risk through early afternoon. Farther southwest, within the warm sector, a very low-topped semi-organized semi-broken/wavy convective line extends from south-central/southwest Missouri south-southwestward into western Arkansas and the ArkLaTex vicinity, with little if any lightning flashes as of late morning. Line-preceding cloud breaks are noted across central/eastern Arkansas into far southeast Missouri, generally coincident with surface temperatures that have already reached 70F and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F. Given this scenario, a modest diurnal heating-related uptick in updraft/downdraft intensity is plausible, although the weak overall buoyancy should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, some potential for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes will exist especially across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into southern/south-central Illinois. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 175. Farther southeast, a somewhat separate pre-frontal regime, for a least a low/conditional-type surface-based risk, will exist in closer proximity to the Mississippi River through late afternoon and possibly early evening. Read more