Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained 20 mph winds across eastern NM into parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle. The typically drier/windier deterministic solutions hint that sustained winds up to 25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, and this appears reasonable given the favorable timing of peak heating with the passage of a 40-50 knot 700 mb jet. The downslope flow regime should promote RH reductions well into the low teens, and possible into the single digits for some locations. As such, widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. The primary modulating factor is fuel status, which appears unfavorable for fire spread based on recent ERC/fuel guidance. However, finer 1-hour grasses may see sufficient drying to support a fire concern for some areas. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and western KS. Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more