Severe Storms

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TYS TO 15 NE TYS TO 30 NE TYS TO 35 WNW HSS TO 25 NNE TRI. WW 4 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070500Z. ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-059-089-155-163-179-070500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GREENE JEFFERSON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 32 TORNADO AR IL MO 142100Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Western Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will move very quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Widespread severe/damaging winds are the main threat this afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching up to 80-90 mph. The tornado and large hail threat is expected to increase later this evening, with sustained supercells potentially posing a threat for multiple strong tornadoes as moisture returns northward across Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 15 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...34...35... FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southern Minnesota...southwestern Wisconsin...northern and eastern Iowa...and northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31...34...35... Valid 150106Z - 150300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31, 34, 35 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms posing primarily a damaging wind risk will continue spreading northeastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an arcing/broken band of storms from south-central Minnesota southeastward to eastern Iowa, and spreading gradually toward/into northwestern Missouri. Storms are not particularly robust from a reflectivity perspective -- as they remain largely high-based above the remnant deep/dry diurnal boundary layer. Still, given very strong flow aloft, and the dry air remaining sub-cloud, damaging winds will locally remain possible over the next several hours. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 40369130 41329168 42659243 43259405 43979466 44529381 44459291 44219140 42909038 41758969 40369045 40369130 Read more

MD 0177 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern and eastern Missouri and into southwestern and central Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 32... Valid 150045Z - 150245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues. SUMMARY...Hazardous weather potential -- including strong/damaging winds, large hail, and a few, possibly strong tornadoes -- continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradual change in storm character over the past hour or so across south-central Missouri in particular, where substantially more robust supercells have evolved. Development has also increased southward into northern Arkansas. The change in storm character coincides with -- and is likely resulting from -- low-level moistening which is ongoing/spreading northward with time. Storms increased substantially as dewpoints rose into the low 50s, and now mid 50s dewpoints have overspread much of southeastern Missouri and upper 50s to low 60s across northern Arkansas and into the MO Bootheel. Given the highly favorable flow field (veering and strongly increasing with height), this increase in low-level moisture will likely support corresponding increases in severe/tornado potential, including risk for strong tornadoes potential evolving with time. With storms now crossing the Mississippi River in west-central Illinois, and in the next couple of hours farther south including the St. Louis Metro area, a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed across central Illinois and possibly into western Indiana. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF... TSA... LAT...LON 35239373 36459314 37019308 37969200 38849180 38979176 40499038 40888917 40928752 40278721 38858740 38538769 38128936 36649133 35119160 35239373 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Texas into the Texarkana region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150039Z - 150245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the dryline across eastern TX may pose a severe risk through the next several hours. Storm coverage and intensity are uncertain based on recent convective trends, but conditions will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation have been underway for the past hour or so along a dryline across eastern TX into the Texarkana region. A few thunderstorms have managed to develop across east central TX and are showing signs of slow intensification per IR and lightning trends. IR imagery along the remainder of the dryline shows little in the way of imminent convective development; however, latest guidance continues to hint that additional development is possible as the dryline gradually drifts east into an moistening air mass as the primary surface low across KS lifts to the northeast. The convective environment downstream across eastern TX into southwest AR/northwest LA (characterized by MLCAPE upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55 knots of effective shear) suggests that robust supercells are possible if cells can sufficiently intensify to become self-sufficient and mature within the favorable air mass. Large hail will likely be the primary threat given very favorable deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates, though a tornado threat may emerge given 50-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance if a sufficiently widespread severe threat materializes. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30899533 30549620 30489656 30649673 30859670 31089644 31699564 32509495 33219452 33659417 33889382 33949338 33809303 33449284 32959298 32459333 31969371 31569412 31199466 30899533 Read more

MD 0175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
Mesoscale Discussion 0175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi...western Tennessee...and the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142350Z - 150145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears possible in the next 1-2 hours across eastern Arkansas. Storms are expected to intensify as they migrate east/northeast into adjacent portions of Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Watch issuance is likely as the severe threat becomes apparent (though timing is slightly uncertain). DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible and low-level water-vapor imagery show a band of gradually deepening cumulus across eastern AR on the eastern fringe of a low-level theta-e axis where isentropic ascent is regionally greatest. A few orphan anvils and occasional lightning flashes have been noted within the last 10-30 minutes, suggesting that this may be the early stages of convective initiation that has been consistently depicted in recent HRRR solutions over the past few hours. However, thunderstorms further south across eastern LA that developed in a similar, if not a better from a thermodynamic perspective, convective environment have struggled to maintain intensity and organization over the past hour. Consequently, it remains somewhat uncertain whether robust convective initiation is imminent and how widespread storm coverage will be in the next few hours. Closer proximity to the primary upper trough may support stronger forcing for ascent and perhaps higher probability for successful convective initiation. If storms can develop and intensify, they will likely pose a threat for all convective hazards, including the potential for a strong tornado, given favorable buoyancy, deep-layer shear, and low-level SRH observed from KLZK and KNQA VWPs (the environment is also characterized by SCP values between 12-16 and STP values of 2-4, suggesting a robust convective environment). Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is likely if/when a severe threat begins to materialize. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33509186 33669196 34169183 34959151 36369085 36589025 36638981 36618915 36438878 35928864 35348868 34748897 34378929 33988977 33549121 33429155 33449171 33509186 Read more