Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E POF TO 15 WSW MVN. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-151-153-165-181-185- 191-193-199-150640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more