Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150457Z - 150600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Potential for damaging winds will spread eastward into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest RAP-based objective analysis shows only weak buoyancy across southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, but very strong flow aloft exists ahead of the advancing upper low. As such, and given dry lower-tropospheric air across the region providing evaporative potential, it appears that locally damaging winds will remain possible with the advancing band of convection now crossing northern Illinois. As such, new WW issuance may be required. ..Goss/Mosier.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41538755 42448616 42108525 41168475 40538502 40418674 41538755 Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HOT TO 30 SSE HOT. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-069-073-079- 099-103-139-150640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-123-150640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more