Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Do you still have COVID-19 funeral costs?
Read more
×
FEMA may still be able to help. Visit the COVID-19 Funeral Assistance page. Or to learn more and start an application, call 1-844-684-6333 .
Main navigation
Search
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.
...01Z Update...
Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across
ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into
Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift
south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a
low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the
long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal
surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level
flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic
front will be the primary demarcation for organized
convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few
hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in
convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This
activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared
environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado
risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell
structures.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Areas affected...parts of central and northeast North
Carolina...much of central into eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162217Z - 170015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected this evening, and
at least a few may become severe. Conditions remain favorable for a
brief tornado or damaging gusts.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over much of
southeast VA into northeast NC currently. However, also noted are
mid 60s F dewpoints extending south of this region, and a plume of
mid 70s F temperatures just west and ahead of the cold front.
Given the progression of the cold front and a strong low-level jet
this evening, some uptick in storm coverage is plausible. Hodographs
from forecast soundings still show favorable hodographs for
tornadoes and supercells, especially over the eastern half of VA and
NC. As such, any robust storm that moves into the higher shear
region may become capable of a tornado.
Instability is not particularly strong, however, sufficient to
support localized wind damage or tornado risk.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35418043 36128033 36618005 37987905 38707856 39047805
38977760 38347671 37777640 35957602 34997759 34997987
35418043
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0237 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...55... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55...
Valid 162220Z - 170015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of
storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania.
However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the
evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show
strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves
east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move
out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in
lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an
overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning
data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within
the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations
are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations
within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these
stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently
sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The
overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates
into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but
sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts
pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across
eastern NY and northeast PA.
..Moore.. 03/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486
43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486
44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373
42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 56
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern North Carolina
Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across
the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes,
damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA
to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.
...Bunting
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0237 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...55... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55...
Valid 162220Z - 170015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of
storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania.
However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the
evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show
strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves
east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move
out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in
lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an
overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning
data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within
the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations
are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations
within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these
stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently
sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The
overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates
into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but
sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts
pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across
eastern NY and northeast PA.
..Moore.. 03/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486
43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486
44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373
42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Areas affected...parts of central and northeast North
Carolina...much of central into eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162217Z - 170015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected this evening, and
at least a few may become severe. Conditions remain favorable for a
brief tornado or damaging gusts.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over much of
southeast VA into northeast NC currently. However, also noted are
mid 60s F dewpoints extending south of this region, and a plume of
mid 70s F temperatures just west and ahead of the cold front.
Given the progression of the cold front and a strong low-level jet
this evening, some uptick in storm coverage is plausible. Hodographs
from forecast soundings still show favorable hodographs for
tornadoes and supercells, especially over the eastern half of VA and
NC. As such, any robust storm that moves into the higher shear
region may become capable of a tornado.
Instability is not particularly strong, however, sufficient to
support localized wind damage or tornado risk.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35418043 36128033 36618005 37987905 38707856 39047805
38977760 38347671 37777640 35957602 34997759 34997987
35418043
Read more
5 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU
TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT.
..MOORE..03/16/25
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC043-170040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WASHINGTON
PAC041-055-057-099-170040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON
PERRY
VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK
PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH
WARREN
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
Subscribe to Severe Storms feed