Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND PARTS OF IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from southeast Nebraska across the southern two-thirds of Iowa. ...Southeast NE and IA... A broad upper trough over the West will progress east as the primary embedded shortwave impulse ejects across the Southwest towards the central Great Plains. This will induce pronounced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern Rockies, tracking into the Lower MO Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will be tempered by a substantial continental air mass intrusion previously, characterized by 20s surface dew points currently along the TX Coast. It appears unlikely that sufficient buoyancy will exist to overcome the stout elevated mixed layer in the warm-limited moist sector ahead of the deep cyclone. However, elevated convection should develop Tuesday night across the Mid-MO Valley as large-scale ascent becomes quite strong. While elevated MUCAPE will be weak at most, effective bulk shear should be adequate for small to isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 03/16/2025 Read more