Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more