Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z. ..Darrow.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z. ..Darrow.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z. ..Darrow.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z. ..Darrow.. 03/18/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 22:10:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 22:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more