Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However, slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a 8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear. Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday morning. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However, slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a 8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear. Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday morning. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However, slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a 8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear. Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday morning. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 18 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 18 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Southern and Central Plains... Adjustments were made to the Elevated across western Oklahoma into central Oklahoma to account for overlap of D1/D2 fire weather concerns across western and central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Some portion of this area likely be removed in subsequent outlooks as conditions improve Wednesday morning/afternoon. Elevated to locally Critical conditions will develop again across the Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon as post-frontal northwesterly flow overlaps continued dry conditions, though temperatures will hover near the mid to upper 50s. The Critical area was expanded northward into southern New Mexico to account for latest trends and updated information on fuels. Temperatures will be cooling across this region, however post frontal winds will remain strong with ERCs around the 90th percentile. ...West Virginia, Southern Pennsylvania, Portions of the Appalachians... An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Appalachians across eastern Tennessee/North Carolina. A very dry air mass will be in place across this region amid breezy southerly winds. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Latest fuels guidance in these regions suggests fuels will support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Southern and Central Plains... Adjustments were made to the Elevated across western Oklahoma into central Oklahoma to account for overlap of D1/D2 fire weather concerns across western and central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Some portion of this area likely be removed in subsequent outlooks as conditions improve Wednesday morning/afternoon. Elevated to locally Critical conditions will develop again across the Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon as post-frontal northwesterly flow overlaps continued dry conditions, though temperatures will hover near the mid to upper 50s. The Critical area was expanded northward into southern New Mexico to account for latest trends and updated information on fuels. Temperatures will be cooling across this region, however post frontal winds will remain strong with ERCs around the 90th percentile. ...West Virginia, Southern Pennsylvania, Portions of the Appalachians... An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Appalachians across eastern Tennessee/North Carolina. A very dry air mass will be in place across this region amid breezy southerly winds. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Latest fuels guidance in these regions suggests fuels will support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Southern and Central Plains... Adjustments were made to the Elevated across western Oklahoma into central Oklahoma to account for overlap of D1/D2 fire weather concerns across western and central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle. Some portion of this area likely be removed in subsequent outlooks as conditions improve Wednesday morning/afternoon. Elevated to locally Critical conditions will develop again across the Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon as post-frontal northwesterly flow overlaps continued dry conditions, though temperatures will hover near the mid to upper 50s. The Critical area was expanded northward into southern New Mexico to account for latest trends and updated information on fuels. Temperatures will be cooling across this region, however post frontal winds will remain strong with ERCs around the 90th percentile. ...West Virginia, Southern Pennsylvania, Portions of the Appalachians... An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Appalachians across eastern Tennessee/North Carolina. A very dry air mass will be in place across this region amid breezy southerly winds. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Latest fuels guidance in these regions suggests fuels will support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more