Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

MD 0239 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas into Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 190532Z - 190930Z SUMMARY...The onset of blizzard conditions is occurring across northeast CO; blizzard conditions will spread east and become more widespread through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and web cams across northeast CO and adjacent areas of KS and NE are beginning to report significant visibility reductions below 1/2 mile as a combination of cold air advection and wet-bulb cooling support rapid cooling and saturation of low-level temperature profiles across the region. This comes as an intense surface low begins to mature to the east across central/western KS with 25-35 mph northerly gradient winds. Downstream across northern KS and southern NE, temperatures remain well above freezing, but similar rapid cooling/saturation is expected over the next few hours as sub-freezing temperatures are advected south and precipitation becomes more widespread and intense within the deformation/frontogenetical zone of the cyclone. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest the potential for organized snow banding across northern KS into southern/central NE between 06-12 UTC with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour. Despite the relatively warm temperatures for a winter storm, blowing snow model output suggests that this combination of heavy snowfall rates and strong northerly winds (gusting between 40-60 mph) will support widespread visibility reductions below 1/4 mile with periods of whiteout conditions. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... CYS... LAT...LON 40259814 39749845 39289877 38999908 38779952 38689982 38570048 38490119 38500186 38590247 38890310 39180356 39700378 40160385 40690367 41010312 41170255 41370177 41440121 41620032 42009861 42069803 42019755 41859718 41539698 41199690 40919713 40719747 40259814 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more