Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0072 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Illinois...northern Indiana...southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301743Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with storms this afternoon. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado threat is less certain, but a few line-embedded circulations do appear possible. DISCUSSION...Temperatures in northeast Illinois into northern Indiana have risen into the low/mid 70s F. Cumulus along the cold front has deepened in northeast Illinois and storms appear likely to initiate as the shortwave trough moves through the region. In addition, some portion of the activity in central Illinois will move northeastward into parts of northern Indiana. Destabilization should continue through the afternoon, particularly in northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan. MLCAPE in northeast Illinois is 500-750 J/kg and it is not clear how much more buoyancy will develop before the fast moving storms move through. The greatest risk will be strong/damaging wind gusts with what is expected to be one or more linear segments. Large hail is possible, but should be more spatially limited given storm mode. The tornado threat is less clear this far north. Low-level winds are veered and effective SRH values from objective mesoanalysis and regional VAD profiles is not large. However, the QLCS tornado threat is nonzero as line-embedded circulations are certainly possible. A watch is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40848645 40448774 40378826 40878876 41708893 41928887 42328804 42768640 42598582 41918550 40948614 40848645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more