Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana and much of north-central Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060243Z - 060845Z SUMMARY...Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain showers are expected to increase in coverage/intensity through tonight. Periods of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are possible. DISCUSSION...Evening upper air/surface analysis showed a broad warm air advection regime was strengthening ahead of a low amplitude upper trough and warm front over portions of the middle OH Valley. North of the surface front, temperatures are near or just below freezing with several areas of light to occasionally moderate precipitation. Over the last couple of hours, area surface stations have observed a mosaic of freezing drizzle, snow/ice pellets and light freezing rain showers as the initial onset of stronger warm air advection. Thus far, intermittent freezing rain rates have been light, generally below 0.02 in/hr. However, recent radar trends show an increase in deeper convective cores (some with lightning) and moderate stratiform developing over east-central IN and far western OH. This intensification trend is expected to continue as large-scale ascent from an approaching shortwave trough should bolster low-level warm advection (850-700 mb temps of 4-6 C) through the overnight hours. Continued large-scale ascent, in combination with weak elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE) will support more widespread and heavier precipitation across portions of eastern IN and north-central OH. Moderate to locally heavy freezing rain, with rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible, especially with the heavier convective elements. Freezing rain concerns are highest primarily across north-central OH where surface temperatures are below 30 F and accretion will be most efficient. However, some icing is possible over much of central/southern OH where surface temperatures are more marginal. Given the expected increase in icing, travel disruptions are possible. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073 40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more