Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. ..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. ..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. ..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. ..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025 Read more

MD 0069 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR SOUTHEAST KY INTO FAR WESTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0852 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast KY into far western VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 061452Z - 061615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado may continue into late morning. DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms with a history of producing an apparent tornado and locally damaging gusts is moving across southeast KY toward western VA this morning. Diminishing instability with eastward extent and a tendency for a weakening/veering low-level jet (as the primary midlevel shortwave trough moves away) should result in a gradual weakening trend with time as storms move eastward. However, strong low/midlevel flow and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through late morning, with an attendant threat of locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado across the remaining portion of WW 3, and also potentially into adjacent parts of far western VA. ..Dean.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36948487 37388268 37438216 37398111 37008136 36788241 36658328 36628434 36658474 36948487 Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CSV TO 10 WNW LOZ TO 50 ESE JKL TO 45 WNW BLF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069 ..DEAN..02/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-051-071-095-119-121-125-133-147-193-195-199-231-235- 061640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL CLAY FLOYD HARLAN KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LETCHER MCCREARY PERRY PIKE PULASKI WAYNE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 3 TORNADO KY 061110Z - 061600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday morning from 510 AM until 1000 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is currently moving across central Kentucky. This line has intensified over the past hour and environmental conditions are expected to remain supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing brief tornadoes, strong gusts, and isolated small hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Bowling Green KY to 40 miles west northwest of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...southern and eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 061312Z - 061445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for a few supercells capable of all severe weather hazards continues. DISCUSSION...The line of storms earlier this morning across central Kentucky has become less defined through time with a few more dominant supercells in a now broken line from east-central Kentucky to south-central Kentucky. The strongest of these supercells is moving through Jackson County as of 13Z with a somewhat tight 40 knot vRot sampled by the KJKL WSR-88D. Instability has already started to wane across the region which should eventually weaken these storms. However, in the meantime, a tornado threat may persist given the presence of a mature, long-lived, rotating updraft amid strong low-level shear (200 to 250 m2/s2 0-1km SRH). Per collaboration with WFO JKL, tornado watch 3 has been expanded across all of eastern Kentucky to cover the threat from these ongoing storms. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36948629 37648429 37978332 37968285 37858267 37598263 37308292 36828361 36618395 36598420 36598554 36948629 Read more

MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...WESTERN NEW JERSEY...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...northern Maryland...northern Delaware...western New Jersey...and southwestern New York. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 060900Z - 061400Z SUMMARY...A mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow is expected this morning across portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. DISCUSSION...A progressive shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak are moving through the Ohio Valley this morning. Ahead of this trough, widespread stratiform rain, with some embedded convection, has developed within a region of dCVA and strong isentropic ascent. Expect this region of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to expand further this morning as ascent increases with an expanding/strengthening low-level jet. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 20s across much of Pennsylvania and surrounding areas. These well-below freezing temperatures, combined with sustained 10 mph winds, create an environment favorable for ice accretion this morning from Lake Erie to the Atlantic Ocean near New Jersey/Delaware. Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across Delaware and New Jersey by daybreak as strengthening low-level southeasterly flow off the Gulf stream progresses inland. Isolated pockets of freezing rain, correlated with terrain, exist farther south across Virginia, but will eventually erode as warmer air advects into the region. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42158037 42457948 42867907 42867784 42087593 41397507 40447475 40147457 39567440 39257483 39407644 39417724 39527801 39867893 40517967 42158037 Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HOP TO 15 E BWG TO 25 NW LOZ TO 15 W JKL TO 35 SSW HTS. ..BENTLEY..02/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-013-025-051-053-057-071-095-109-115-119-121-125- 133-141-147-153-159-169-171-189-193-195-199-203-207-213-227-231- 235-061440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LETCHER LOGAN MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN METCALFE MONROE OWSLEY PERRY PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SIMPSON WARREN WAYNE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HOP TO 15 E BWG TO 25 NW LOZ TO 15 W JKL TO 35 SSW HTS. ..BENTLEY..02/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-013-025-051-053-057-071-095-109-115-119-121-125- 133-141-147-153-159-169-171-189-193-195-199-203-207-213-227-231- 235-061440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LETCHER LOGAN MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN METCALFE MONROE OWSLEY PERRY PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SIMPSON WARREN WAYNE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more