Severe Storms

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 145 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 190225Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 925 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms to the north of southwest/northeast-oriented boundary across the region will pose mainly a large hail risk along with the potential for localized severe-wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Altus OK to 15 miles northeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-143-193-235-267-307-319-327- 333-399-411-413-431-435-441-451-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more