Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the OH Valley, encouraging the deepening of a surface cyclone as it tracks from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes tomorrow (Sunday). Another mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic from New England, promoting deep-layer offshore flow across the region. Dry southeasterly surface flow is expected across western portions of the Florida Peninsula again Sunday afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained winds amid 25-40 percent RH will support Elevated fire conditions given dry fuels. Solidly Elevated meteorological conditions are also likely across coastal New England in association with the deep-layer offshore flow. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations will likely dampen fuels to the point where any wildfire-spread potential that manifests will likely be localized in nature. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the OH Valley, encouraging the deepening of a surface cyclone as it tracks from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes tomorrow (Sunday). Another mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic from New England, promoting deep-layer offshore flow across the region. Dry southeasterly surface flow is expected across western portions of the Florida Peninsula again Sunday afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained winds amid 25-40 percent RH will support Elevated fire conditions given dry fuels. Solidly Elevated meteorological conditions are also likely across coastal New England in association with the deep-layer offshore flow. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations will likely dampen fuels to the point where any wildfire-spread potential that manifests will likely be localized in nature. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CQB TO 50 NNE SGF TO 35 SW JEF. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-055-059-065-067-071-073-077-091-093-099-105-109- 119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183-186-187-189-203- 209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ABI TO 5 ESE SPS TO 30 SSW TUL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-190740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC SEMINOLE TXC009-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-503-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ABI TO 5 ESE SPS TO 30 SSW TUL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-190740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC SEMINOLE TXC009-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-503-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ABI TO 5 ESE SPS TO 30 SSW TUL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-190740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC SEMINOLE TXC009-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-503-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ABI TO 5 ESE SPS TO 30 SSW TUL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-190740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC SEMINOLE TXC009-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-503-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ABI TO 5 ESE SPS TO 30 SSW TUL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-190740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC SEMINOLE TXC009-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-503-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 144 TORNADO OK TX 190215Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 915 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop through mid/late evening. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected along with some tornado potential with storms near/south of a boundary across the region. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX to 70 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE 6R6 TO 40 WSW ABI. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-143-193-235-267-307-319-327- 333-399-411-413-435-441-451-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE 6R6 TO 40 WSW ABI. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-143-193-235-267-307-319-327- 333-399-411-413-435-441-451-190740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...the Permian Basin into parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190445Z - 190615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected overnight. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in Crockett county within the past 30 minutes. This is likely the beginning stages of scattered strong to severe storms through the overnight period. A modest increase in the low-level jet has been noted on the KSJT VWP with additional strengthening anticipated into the overnight period. 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE is present across the region (per SPC mesoanalysis) which, combined with 70+ knots of effective shear, would support the potential for supercells capable of large hail. While storms will likely be elevated initially, there is sufficient low-level moisture, especially with eastward extent that some surface-based storm threat and greater severe wind/isolated tornado threat may exist farther east, especially if storms grow upscale. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30790156 31170160 32330044 32579877 32489809 30889895 30370027 30360135 30790156 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0476 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 144... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Concerning...Tornado Watch 144... Valid 190426Z - 190600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues. SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will continue into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed late this evening across south-central and eastern Oklahoma and into north Texas with hail up to golf ball size. A strengthening low-level jet (sampled by the KFWS VWP) and continued destabilization via moistening around 1km and cooling temperatures aloft should continue to support a supercell threat into the overnight hours. Large hail will be the primary threat, but some tornado threat will continue to exist with any storms along and south of the cold front where an STP of 1 to 2 is present. Additional severe convection west and north of the ongoing storms from Stephens to Cleveland county remains uncertain. The core of the low-level jet appears to be focused mostly east of that axis with minimal evidence on the KFDR VWP and only modest strengthening at 1km from KDYX. Therefore, convection will likely be preferred from south-central Oklahoma and eastward, but sufficient elevated instability remains across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma that additional development is possible. ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33819820 34389901 34949907 35229859 36249660 36269650 36519556 36359486 36069466 35459470 34589568 33829665 33749728 33689783 33819820 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-085-091-093- 097-099-105-109-119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183- 186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-031-033-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 137-141-190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-207-237-275-337-363-417-429-447-485-487-503- 190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE HASKELL JACK KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more