Severe Storms

WW 147 SEVERE TSTM TX 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase in the vicinity of stationary boundary extended across the region. Environmental conditions support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3 to 3.5". Several strong gusts are possible as well. Any supercells that persist within the warm sector could produce a tornado or two, but the overall tornado potential is expected to remain low through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east of Dryden TX to 85 miles north northwest of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 19 19:16:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more