Severe Storms

MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 200011Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time, these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector, where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify. Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the baroclinic boundary into the warm sector. Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807 31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0489 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200035Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary. As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant, likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654 33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more