Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more