Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Extensive convection has occurred overnight and early this morning across the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Ongoing thunderstorms across south-central TX are expected to continue weakening over the next couple of hours as they encounter a strongly capped airmass. Activity over eastern OK into western AR and MO may pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, although instability will tend to remain weak for at least a few more hours. Otherwise, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will continue to eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley through the period. An attendant 60-90 kt mid-level jet will likewise spread northeastward across eastern OK/KS and the Ozarks through the day. A weak surface low over OK this morning will also develop northeastward to northern MO by this evening, while a cold front continues moving eastward over the southern Plains towards the ArkLaTex. Ongoing cloudiness and precipitation lend some uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization that will occur by this afternoon across the developing warm sector. Still, most guidance shows that at least low 60s surface dewpoints and related low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward across eastern OK and AR/MO in tandem with a strong southerly low-level jet today. Although daytime heating will likely be hampered to some extent, even 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support surface-based thunderstorms by this afternoon. This destabilization appears likely to occur in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the surface low and related cold front. Rather strong deep-layer shear will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for a mix of supercells and broken line segments. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front across eastern OK and vicinity by early afternoon (17-19Z), as pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough impinges on the warm sector. Given a weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment, this convection should intensify fairly quickly as it moves east-northeastward into AR/MO. The linear forcing of the front suggests that a line or cluster mode should occur, although some high-resolution guidance does show more of a broken line of supercells given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Regardless, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds and tornadoes will increase this afternoon and evening across the Enhanced Risk and vicinity, as a 40-55 kt southerly low-level jet aids in large 0-3 km hodograph curvature and elongation. Given the forecast strength of the low-level shear, some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF-2+), especially if a mixed supercell/cluster mode can be maintained versus linear. Hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. The overall severe threat this evening and overnight will be tempered on the north by limited low-level moisture and instability, and on the east by gradually increasing MLCIN. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/20/2025 Read more

MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153... Valid 200854Z - 201100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to gradually move eastward across southwest Missouri over the next couple of hours. The threat should become more isolated as it eventually approaches the eastern edge of WW 153. New weather watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Springfield, Missouri shows a continuous line of strong to severe storms located from far northwest Arkansas into far southwest Missouri. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of weak instability with MUCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. The RAP forecast sounding at Springfield has effective shear of 50 to 55 knots. This will likely support a severe threat with the line segment as it gradually moves eastward over the next couple of hours. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. The threat should become more isolated as it moves into even weaker instability further east. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 36529255 36519341 36559386 36809409 37249387 37829339 37959271 37619209 36789212 36529255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HDO TO 60 E JCT TO 40 SE BWD. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC265-299-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KERR LLANO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HDO TO 60 E JCT TO 40 SE BWD. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC265-299-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KERR LLANO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HDO TO 60 E JCT TO 40 SE BWD. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC265-299-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KERR LLANO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HDO TO 60 E JCT TO 40 SE BWD. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC265-299-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KERR LLANO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 151 TORNADO TX 200300Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1000 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to intensify and move from west to east across the Watch area tonight. The warm sector environment will support the possibility for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles southwest of San Angelo TX to 80 miles east northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...WW 150... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UMN TO 10 W SGF TO 45 NNW SGF. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC043-059-067-077-105-153-167-209-213-225-229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UMN TO 10 W SGF TO 45 NNW SGF. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC043-059-067-077-105-153-167-209-213-225-229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UMN TO 10 W SGF TO 45 NNW SGF. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC043-059-067-077-105-153-167-209-213-225-229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UMN TO 10 W SGF TO 45 NNW SGF. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC043-059-067-077-105-153-167-209-213-225-229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 153 SEVERE TSTM MO 200725Z - 201300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Missouri * Effective this Sunday morning from 225 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will spread northeastward this morning across parts of southwest Missouri. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although a brief tornado or two may also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Monett MO to 40 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...WW 152... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more