Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053- 057-059-061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-143-149-201940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL KSC011-021-037-107-201940- Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053- 057-059-061-065-071-073-081-083-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-143-149-201940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON YELL KSC011-021-037-107-201940- Read more

MD 0501 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154... FOR ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into western/central Arkansas and southwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 154... Valid 201717Z - 201915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...The threat tornadoes, some potentially strong, and swaths of damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A surface low currently deepening in eastern Oklahoma should continue to track northeast along with a potent, compact shortwave trough in the southern Plains. Morning satellite imagery shows expansive cloud cover in parts of eastern Oklahoma with greater coverage in central/northern Missouri. However, there are areas of clearing in central/northern Arkansas and southwest/south-central Missouri. Visible satellite continues to show a general breakdown of boundary layer rolls into cumulus clouds. This matches with forecast soundings suggesting diminishing MLCIN in the areas of greatest heating. As storm continue to develop/intensity along the cold front and near the surface low, the severe threat will gradually increase into the afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields should continue to strengthen, particularly in northern Arkansas into Missouri, as the surface low deepens. This will support a threat for tornadoes--some of which could be strong. A small supercell near an effective warm front in Camden County, MO will pose the greatest short-term tornado threat if it can remain anchored to the boundary. While the shear vector orientation to the cold front will support some discrete elements, forcing from the shortwave trough within a weakly capped airmass will also tend to promote several linear segments capable of swaths of wind damage. ..Wendt/Goss.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 32849491 35629534 36589520 38239351 38709276 38899215 38729176 38309148 37249186 34599241 32849349 32429414 32849491 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more