Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

WW 154 TORNADO AR KS LA MO OK TX 201700Z - 210000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of western and central Arkansas southeastern Kansas northwestern Louisiana central and southern Missouri eastern Oklahoma far northeastern Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A steady increase in coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is expected to occur over the next several hours, with severe-weather potential evolving from eastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region northward into Missouri. Along with risk for fairly widespread damaging wind gusts and hail, several tornadoes are expected -- including potential for a few that are strong/longer-lived. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Springfield MO to 25 miles west of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more

WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0506 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154...155... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155... Valid 202240Z - 210015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface, supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058 40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058 36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 156 TORNADO AR MO 202240Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Far Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to move into the region this evening, including tornado potential aside from large hail and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Walnut Ridge AR to 25 miles southwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...WW 155... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0506 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154...155... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155... Valid 202240Z - 210015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface, supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058 40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058 36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW TXK TO 20 N HOT TO 15 ENE TBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506 ..SQUITIERI..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...SGF...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-065-073- 089-091-099-103-105-109-119-125-129-137-141-202340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD IZARD LAFAYETTE MARION MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PULASKI SALINE SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN LAC015-017-119-202340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER Read more

MD 0505 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 154... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 154... Valid 202207Z - 202300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue east across Arkansas this afternoon and evening. The low-level environment will remain supportive of tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed across eastern Arkansas -- to the east of the existing watch -- within the hour. DISCUSSION...A mixed-mode (linear segments and discrete cells) line of thunderstorms continues to move east across Arkansas this afternoon. The environment along and ahead of these storms is characterized by 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective-layer shear around 50-60 knots. Additionally, the Little Rock VAD depicts strong low-level curvature with 0-1 km SRH averaging around 180-190 m2/s2 over the last hour. Discrete thunderstorms moving from southwest Arkansas toward central Arkansas have shown increasing organization/mid-level rotation, with broadcast media reporting a tornado recently in Garland County. This environment should evolve east across the state this evening, supporting a continued tornado threat east of the ongoing tornado watch. With Tornado Watch 154 scheduled to expire by 00 UTC / 7 PM CDT, a new tornado watch for portions of central and eastern Arkansas will likely be needed within the hour. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV... LAT...LON 36309300 36529184 36399031 35858986 34309047 34299051 33299101 32979137 32899293 33049390 33949373 36309300 Read more