Severe Storms

WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ARG TO 30 NNW POF TO 25 SSW BLV TO 5 NNW ALN TO 15 WNW SPI TO 25 SSW PIA TO 10 SW MLI. ..SQUITIERI..04/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...PAH...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-011-021-027-039-051-055-073-077-081-087-095-107-113- 115-117-119-121-123-125-129-135-139-143-145-147-153-155-157-161- 163-167-173-175-179-181-189-195-199-203-210240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND BUREAU CHRISTIAN CLINTON DE WITT FAYETTE FRANKLIN HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON KNOX LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MARSHALL MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PEORIA PERRY PIATT PULASKI PUTNAM RANDOLPH ROCK ISLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SHELBY STARK TAZEWELL UNION WASHINGTON WHITESIDE WILLIAMSON WOODFORD IAC163-210240- Read more

WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E UNO TO 15 WSW FAM TO 20 NW STL TO 30 ENE UIN TO 40 NNW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507 ..SQUITIERI..04/21/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...PAH...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-009-013-017-021-027-051-055-057-061-071-073-077-081- 083-087-095-107-109-117-119-121-125-129-131-133-135-137-143-145- 153-157-161-163-167-169-171-175-179-181-187-189-199-210140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLINTON FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HENDERSON HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON KNOX LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MERCER MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PEORIA PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ROCK ISLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK TAZEWELL UNION WARREN WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail. ...01z Update... Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook. Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to account for this scenario. ..Darrow.. 04/21/2025 Read more