Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended period will begin with broad troughing across the eastern US and a surface low tracking northeastward across the Great Lakes. A cold front will stretch from the northeastern US southward into the southern Plains, shifting eastward on D5/Friday across the Ohio Valley into the southeastern US. Beyond D5/Friday, heights will begin to rise across the Plains as an upper level high strengthens, which will limit the severe threat through the end of the extended. ...D5/Friday - Tennessee and Ohio Valley... On D5/Friday, thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front across portions of the Ohio Valley into the southern Mississippi Valley. Model solutions differ on how much instability will be available across Tennessee into the Ohio Valley, where the strongest flow aloft will reside. There appears to be little overlap between the better flow aloft and any meaningful instability, which keeps probabilities too low to include areas in the extended. However, some instances of wind and hail from stronger storms will be possible across portions of Tennessee into Ohio. ...D6/Saturday - Southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline in southwestern Texas on D6/Saturday. During this period, heights aloft will be rising, which will likely work to limit overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop with potential for large hail and severe wind. Overall, limited coverage does not warrant inclusion of probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface low development is expected across western Texas on D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon, additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe wind, hail, and a tornado. ...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma... Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central Texas into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon will pose some severe potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early supercell modes. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Ahead of a midlevel trough moving eastward across the Southwest, moderate southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Here, boundary-layer mixing along the western periphery of a deepening lee cyclone over the TX Trans-Pecos will favor dry/breezy conditions across southern NM. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph amid 10 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across portions of northern/central NM -- ahead of the approaching midlevel trough. While this may promote a localized risk of dry thunderstorms, confidence in sufficient coverage of storms over dry fuels is too low to add Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low-levels, a related lee trough will deepen over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos... West of the lee trough, downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will promote deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the pressure gradient will tighten along the periphery of the deepening lee trough during the afternoon. This will result in a corridor of 10-15 percent RH across much of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), will promote critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels over southern New Mexico into the far western Trans-Pecos -- with elevated conditions expected northward into southeast Colorado. ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more