Severe Storms

MD 0580 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 178... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 178... Valid 272344Z - 280115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 178 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell tornado threat is expected to increase over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from LNX has shown splitting supercell structures and related mergers over portions of western NE, with a recent intensification of a right-moving supercell. As this storm and other nearby developing storms continue east-northeastward, a moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the lower 60s) and increasing clockwise-curved hodographs (effective SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2) will favor an increasing supercell tornado risk. Given, the ample streamwise vorticity and rich low-level moisture, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41540202 42050220 42480265 42770270 42960242 43060212 43040173 42830127 42390090 41790095 41470122 41390177 41540202 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-087-280040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD NDC001-011-087-280040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOWMAN SLOPE SDC019-033-047-055-063-081-093-103-105-137-280040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH Read more

WW 179 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 272235Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Western South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected across the region through the remainder of the afternoon into early/mid-evening, with large hail expected to the most probable risk, with damaging winds and possibly some/brief tornado risk as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Baker MT to 35 miles east southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 178... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0579 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the northern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272217Z - 272345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Supercell threat is increasing across the northern High Plains. New WW appears warranted. DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow has overspread the northern High Plains early this evening. Latest diagnostic data suggests a weak surface wave has developed over extreme northeast WY, which favors continued boundary-layer moistening into southeast MT over the next few hours. Latest satellite imagery suggests deepening towers over the higher terrain in southeast Big Horn County MT. Robust thunderstorms should mature and spread east just north of the aforementioned weak wave. Forecast soundings favor supercells, and with increasing boundary-layer moisture into the early evening hours, there appears to be some risk for tornadoes as dew points rise into the lower 50s. Convection is also deepening over the Black Hills within a wind profile that also favors supercells. Mid 50s surface dew points may spread west into this region which would aid buoyancy within a veering wind profile. New watch appears warranted across this region. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44120359 44850434 45060587 45810547 45710323 44430220 44120359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0578 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272154Z - 272330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Risk of isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will persist for another couple hours. DISCUSSION...Radar data from GWX shows a recent uptick in thunderstorm intensity along/ahead of a weak boundary draped across the Mid-South, including a couple discrete supercellular structures. These storms are evolving in a warm/moist boundary layer with around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of effective shear. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will remain possible with this activity, before nocturnal cooling stabilizes the boundary layer into the evening. Given the localized nature of the threat, a watch is not expected. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34009118 34349041 34588948 34528921 34208880 33618859 33348886 33118947 33039061 33299115 33529133 33789135 34009118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC115-280040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SEDGWICK NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117- 123-135-161-171-280040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC007-071-095-102-121-280040- SD Read more

WW 178 TORNADO CO NE SD 272155Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Sun Apr 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska Southwest South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected this evening, with very large hail possible as the main and initial hazard. Tornado potential is expected to increase toward/after sunset as additional low-level moistening occurs. Damaging winds are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles northeast of Chadron NE to 60 miles west southwest of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...Western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272047Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Watch issuance in western Kansas is currently unlikely. Significant severe would be possible if storms develop. Observational trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Periodic enhancement to the cumulus field in western Kansas has been noted in day cloud phase satellite imagery, primarily in the vicinity of Goodland. Low 60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface trough/modest dryline has allowed around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop. With the generally weak dryline circulation and uncertain/subtle mid-level ascent, the development of deep convection is far from a given. Only the more aggressive of the CAM models suggests development later this afternoon. However, despite this uncertainty, the environment will be conditionally favorable for significant severe if storms can form. Supercells would be likely given 40-45 kts of effective shear perpendicular to the dryline. Furthermore, a strong increase in 850 mb winds after 00Z would support a tornado threat. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, but observational trends (including observed sounding data) will be monitored over the next few hours. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37040184 37250192 37800194 38500200 39840192 39930179 39910146 39730088 38920051 37260066 37030095 37040184 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0577 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NW TX INTO THE TX PNHDL
Mesoscale Discussion 0577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...parts of nw TX into the TX Pnhdl Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272049Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Probabilities for thunderstorm development appear low, but may not be negligible late this afternoon into early evening, with the environment conditionally supportive of supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. If and when it becomes more certain that storms will form, a severe weather watch will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s surface dew points is being maintained across the Lubbock through Amarillo vicinities, beneath a deep warm elevated mixed-layer based between 850-700 mb, just east of a dryline which may mix only slowly northeastward/eastward into early evening. This appears to be contributing to strong potential instability (3000+ J/kg), beneath moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer), and an environment conditionally supportive of intense supercells. Perhaps due to the warm/dry air at mid-levels, and weak large-scale forcing for ascent, convection allowing guidance, in particular, continues to indicate generally low potential for thunderstorm initiation through early evening. However, at least attempts at deepening convective development are evident to the west of the dryline, and objective analysis indicates a possible secondary maximum in dryline convergence developing near/north of Lubbock toward areas west of Amarillo. Of particular concern, if a sustained storm does develop during the next couple of hours, there appears potential for rapid intensification while propagating across the dryline. Toward 23-00Z, strengthening south-southeasterly low-level flow (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved low-level hodographs increasingly supportive of potential for tornadoes, in addition to large, potentially damaging hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 35980219 34140054 33100020 32670120 33720184 33810231 34340246 34960261 35980219 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0179 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Areas affected...2Nebraska Panhandle into the Sandhills and Southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272029Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell potential should increase over the next 2-3 hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The tornado threat will initially be low, but will increase for storms persisting near/after sunset. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...As the lee trough continues to deepen this afternoon, clusters of cumulus clouds have begun to develop in northeast Colorado. With time and the approach of a shortwave trough, a surface low will become more evident in eastern Colorado. Low 60s F dewpoints have already reached parts of northwest Kansas and should continue north and west as low-level winds respond to the surface cyclone. Effective shear of around 45 kts across the trough axis will promote discrete storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and initially long, straight hodographs will promote a risk for large/very-large hail and severe winds. As the low-level jet increases this evening, any mature supercells ongoing will have an increased potential to produce a tornado. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain, but isolated to widely scattered supercells appear possible given at least modest mid-level ascent expected over the next few hours. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41180373 41710412 42850358 42740190 42150098 41420084 40730085 40520156 40540220 40820308 41180373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... A short-wave trough over the Southwest U.S. will continue to bring lingering fire weather concerns to southern New Mexico and far west Texas Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities remain for Day 3/Tuesday across southern New Mexico and far Western Texas, with fire weather threat shifting and shrinking to primarily far western Texas by Day 4/Wednesday where available fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. Another upper-level wave and cold front shift eastward across the northern Rockies for Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday presenting a potential post-frontal/downslope wind fire weather threat across eastern Montana. Spatial distribution of frontal precipitation is a bit uncertain and precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time for Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Ridge amplification over the western U.S. will support a lighter wind regime but above normal temperatures for much of the Intermountain West and Northwestern Tier states. Long term model and ensemble guidance suggests another potentially strong, negatively tilted upper-trough into the western U.S. through the weekend (Days 7-8). Attendant strong winds aloft over a well-mixed boundary layer could present another broad fire weather concern over much of the Southwest for the weekend time frame. 40 percent Critical probabilities were added for eastern Arizona into western New Mexico where drought stressed fuels remain and minimal to no precipitation leading up to the weekend across this region is expected. ..Williams.. 04/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more