Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2 will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys and Midwest. ...Southern Great Plains... An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east. Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode. In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a 10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now. Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage over the TX Panhandle. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible along the front. ..Grams.. 04/28/2025 Read more

WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-063-119-141-143-147-149-167-281940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117- 121-127-129-133-143-145-149-151-165-173-281940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE Read more