Severe Storms

WW 181 TORNADO IA MN WI 282025Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Central and Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Minnesota will track northeastward across the watch area through the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Strong tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles north northeast of Minneapolis MN to 20 miles southeast of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0587 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...far southeast NE...southwest into central IA...northwest MO...northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 282028Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for a few tornadoes (a couple strong), large to very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter), and isolated damaging gusts through evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of the discussion area from central Iowa into northeast Kansas. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted along a dryline from eastern NE/northwest IA southward into northeast KS. An 18z RAOB from OAX indicated an EML around 700 mb, but only weak capping remained. Additional heating into the low/mid 80s F amid mid/upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km immediately downstream from the surface dryline is support strong instability with MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg noted in latest SPC Mesoanalysis and the 18z OAX RAOB. In addition to this this favorable thermodynamic environment, vertical shear is very favorable for supercell thunderstorms, as evident in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs becoming somewhat elongated above 2-3 km. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat weaker with southward extent into the MO Valley vicinity, and storm coverage is a bit uncertain, especially with southward extent. Timing of convective initiation is also uncertain, but seems most likely in the 22-00z time frame. Regardless, any storms developing in this environment will likely have robust updrafts and become intense, posing a risk for very large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. A tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38269539 38139646 38329715 38529730 39859664 40239643 40809631 41419618 41989598 42139573 42249507 42249396 42229357 42119323 41839294 41459282 40929282 40489283 39839318 39159389 38269539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0588 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into western/central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 282033Z - 282300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as storms are expected to develop along the dryline in the next 2-3 hours. All severe hazards will be possible. The tornado threat will steadily increase from late afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Signs of mid-level ascent have been evident across the southern Plains with visible satellite showing increasing amounts of mid/high-level clouds moving in from the southwest. As a shortwave perturbation lifts northeastward this afternoon/evening, this ascent and additional surface heating should erode capping along/near the dryline. A high-based storm has already formed northeast of Fort Stockton in the last hour. Additional storms are expected to develop later this afternoon, perhaps within the next 2-3 hours. The environment will be quite favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Very steep mid-level lapse rates were observed within the High Plains region on this mornings soundings. Large to potentially giant hail will be possible along with severe winds. Tornadoes will also be possible, particularly from southwest Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains where dewpoints have remained in the upper 60s/low 70s F. The tornado threat will steadily increase with time as 850 mb winds increase east of the dryline from late afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out within this more favorable mesoscale zone. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34040023 35719959 36229909 36769846 36809782 36069709 35409708 34339724 33289797 32219946 32199957 31330088 31160179 31200232 31550250 32450181 34040023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Eastern U.S.... An upper-level trough and associated surface low will translate eastward from the Great Plains on Day 3/Wednesday to the eastern Seaboard through the weekend Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected across much of the eastern U.S. as the trough and associated cold front interact with a broad moisture plume through the weekend. In addition to rainfall, accelerating green-up should mitigate fire spread potential into early next week (Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday). ...Southwest... A short wave-trough with an associated mid-level jet will move into the Southern High Plains for Day 3/Wednesday. This will overrun a dry/well-mixed boundary layer supporting low relative humidity and gusty west winds across southeastern New Mexico into far West Texas. A subtle mid-level wave moving into the Southwest along with antecedent mid-level moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of northern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 5. However, some uncertainty exists with evolution of expected precipitation primarily north of the Interstate 40 corridor from Days 2-4/Tuesday-Thursday. This could prevent higher lightning ignition efficiency so no isolated dry thunderstorms probabilities were introduced. A larger scale upper-level trough and strong mid-level jet could bring broad fire weather threat to areas of the Southwest as early as Day 5/Saturday lasting into early next week for Day 8/Monday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico for Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Some timing uncertainty exists in eastward ejection of upper-trough and associated dynamics into the Southern Plains so extension of Critical probabilities into Day 6 was withheld for portions of the Southwest for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. ..Williams.. 04/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more