Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0191 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0191 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0191 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more