Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0192 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0192 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0192 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0192 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 192 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 292050Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northern Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern Indiana and shift east into southwest Ohio through this evening. Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will accompany this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Cincinnati OH to 50 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PA/NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...western PA/NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291841Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard accompanying this activity. A watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Persistent southwesterly low-level flow has allowed surface dewpoints to increase by 2-6 degrees F over the past 3 hours across much of the region, with values now in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Additionally, strong heating into the 80s has resulted in steepened low-level lapse rates. Modest instability also is overspreading the region, and a large area of cumulus is evident in visible satellite imagery. Convection is expected to develop across western NY over the next couple of hours ahead of the southeast sagging cold front. Additional development may occur into western PA. Additionally, an eastward propagating severe thunderstorm cluster over central Ohio is also expected to persist. This cluster is tracking east/northeast around 50-60 kt as should arrive at the OH/PA border by 21z. Unidirectional vertical wind profiles will continue to favor clusters/line segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and a mixed boundary layer will support damaging gusts. Modest midlevel lapse rates could support isolated hail if any more discrete cells can develop and be maintained. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 39957972 40048059 41688036 42048003 43187839 43477743 43597659 43597614 43457579 43147542 42757569 41277732 39957972 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-049-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-137-141-149- 292140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-033-075-081-101-103-107-115-125-135-151-153-155-169-173- 191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-383- 415-417-431-433-441-447-461-487-292140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL Read more

WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-049-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-137-141-149- 292140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-033-075-081-101-103-107-115-125-135-151-153-155-169-173- 191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-383- 415-417-431-433-441-447-461-487-292140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL Read more

WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-049-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-137-141-149- 292140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-033-075-081-101-103-107-115-125-135-151-153-155-169-173- 191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-383- 415-417-431-433-441-447-461-487-292140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more