Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more