Severe Storms

MD 0689 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of south-central to southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051346Z - 051545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible this morning with elevated storms moving northeast from the San Antonio vicinity. Overall coverage/intensity will probably remain insufficient for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed along a northwest/southeast-oriented corridor to the south-southeast of San Antonio. This activity initially pulsed up and then weakened, but could oscillate back upward this morning. Guidance consensus indicates this activity has formed along the leading edge of strengthening 700-mb southwesterlies, which will move northeastward through midday. 12Z Del Rio and Corpus Christi soundings sampled rich low-level moisture with steepened lapse rates above 650 mb. With some veering but mainly increasing speed shear with height, transient mid-level rotation will remain possible. Overall scenario could support sporadic severe hail cores into midday, but coverage should remain isolated. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29059845 29599874 30159848 30669739 30769676 30639621 30319576 29809556 29279555 28969618 28629707 28679774 29059845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today, beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central Texas. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells, potentially including a few supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms spread north-northeastward. ...Eastern Florida Peninsula... Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Western Dakotas... At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Thursday into the weekend, the upper-level pattern will be characterized by an elongated trough in the East and a building ridge in the West. With this weakly blocking pattern, slow progression of these features can be expected. With the trough in the East, moisture will be present south of a surface boundary across parts of the Southeast and eventually into the Florida Peninsula. Though organized severe potential appears low with this activity, enough remnant mid-level flow could promote localized strong storms. By next week, models currently suggest some troughing is possible in the West. With preceding days of offshore winds across the western Gulf, moisture quality ahead of any potential trough is likely to be low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more