Severe Storms

MD 0685 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... FOR MUCH OF SERN NM INTO SWRN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...much of sern NM into swrn TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222... Valid 042255Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a few strong surface gusts, may continue into the 7-8 PM MDT time frame, before diminishing. It appears unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near or just above 50F remains confined to a narrow corridor to the lee of the Davis, Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been observed the past couple of hours. This has contributed to gusty southeasterly surface winds beneath flow that veers with height to 30-40 kt southwesterly around 500 mb. While the digging mid/upper low has become quasi-stationary across the Southwest, strongly difluent downstream flow is focused to the lee of the southern Rockies, aiding scattered ongoing strong discrete thunderstorm development. It appears that convection, in general, may gradually begin to shift away from the higher terrain with a weak mid-level impulse, toward the Texas South Plains through 01-02z. As it does, more stable easterly updraft inflow emanating from a drier and more deeply mixed boundary-layer will probably contribute to weakening trends, though a few strong surface gusts may be possible before convection dissipates. How much longer renewed thunderstorm development persists to the lee of the higher terrain remains unclear. However, boundary-layer instability likely has peaked, and the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development probably will wane with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34350420 33800311 33350277 31920251 31310337 31410412 31790518 32250570 32970607 33810612 34190566 34400484 34350420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW GDP TO 25 NW CNM TO 40 ESE ROW TO 40 N HOB TO 55 NNE HOB. ..KERR..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC011-015-025-050140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE BACA EDDY LEA TXC003-079-103-109-135-165-301-389-475-495-501-050140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS COCHRAN CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-025-027-035-041-050040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY LEA LINCOLN OTERO ROOSEVELT TXC003-017-079-103-109-135-165-301-389-475-495-501-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BAILEY COCHRAN CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV...WESTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 0686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...Western PA...northern WV...western MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042312Z - 050115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Several cells have recently intensified within an arc of convection extending from northern WV into western PA, in the vicinity of a low-level confluence zone. This convection is likely being aided by an embedded midlevel vorticity maximum moving northward around the periphery of the mid/upper cyclone over the OH/TN Valleys. Modest heating and cool temperatures aloft have allowed for MLCAPE to increase to the 500-1000 J/kg range, within a modestly sheared environment. Occasional organized cells will remain possible this evening, posing a localized threat of hail and strong wind gusts. A favorable overlap of low-level instability and vorticity could also result in brief tornado potential, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences later tonight. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 41108002 39388036 38848047 38718042 38747995 39177929 39347907 39697861 40237844 41067879 41237917 41247951 41108002 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0685 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... FOR MUCH OF SERN NM INTO SWRN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...much of sern NM into swrn TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222... Valid 042255Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a few strong surface gusts, may continue into the 7-8 PM MDT time frame, before diminishing. It appears unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near or just above 50F remains confined to a narrow corridor to the lee of the Davis, Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been observed the past couple of hours. This has contributed to gusty southeasterly surface winds beneath flow that veers with height to 30-40 kt southwesterly around 500 mb. While the digging mid/upper low has become quasi-stationary across the Southwest, strongly difluent downstream flow is focused to the lee of the southern Rockies, aiding scattered ongoing strong discrete thunderstorm development. It appears that convection, in general, may gradually begin to shift away from the higher terrain with a weak mid-level impulse, toward the Texas South Plains through 01-02z. As it does, more stable easterly updraft inflow emanating from a drier and more deeply mixed boundary-layer will probably contribute to weakening trends, though a few strong surface gusts may be possible before convection dissipates. How much longer renewed thunderstorm development persists to the lee of the higher terrain remains unclear. However, boundary-layer instability likely has peaked, and the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development probably will wane with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34350420 33800311 33350277 31920251 31310337 31410412 31790518 32250570 32970607 33810612 34190566 34400484 34350420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 222 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041920Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph may also occur, along with a tornado or two primarily this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Roswell NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 4 22:54:05 UTC 2025.

MD 0684 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... FOR SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222... Valid 042038Z - 042215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to intensify across southeast New Mexico into parts of far west Texas through early evening. Hail is the primary hazard, likely reaching golf to tennis ball size. Isolated severe gusts to 70 mph and a brief tornado are possible. DISCUSSION...Overall forecast remains as advertised. Storm intensification has been gradual, but largely focused near the Sacramento Mountains in Otero and Lincoln counties, and separately over Eddy and Chaves, spreading into Lea within NM. These cells and others that should develop off the higher terrain of the northern Trans-Pecos in TX will likely intensify during the next few hours. A ribbon of surface dew points near 50 F have held along the Pecos Valley, supporting a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. With onset of strengthening low-level flow around 22Z, supercell coverage/intensity should peak into early evening. Thereafter, drier low-level air over the TX South Plains and eastern Permian Basin should result in increased ingest of MLCIN deeper into the evening. ..Grams.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32750583 33150567 33560516 33760462 33830415 33710359 33520318 33150295 32680270 32110266 31580281 31310350 31290415 31800527 32370578 32750583 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more