Severe Storms

MD 0691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN OH...AND WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of WV...eastern OH...and western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051702Z - 051900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon from parts of West Virginia across the Upper Ohio Valley towards Lake Erie. Monitoring for a potential severe thunderstorm watch across parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have gradually developed across far southern WV, within the left-exit of a mid-level jetlet curling north, east of the southern Appalachians. Scattered showers are also prevalent from northern VA into western PA beneath a separate upper-level jetlet. Closer to the cold-core of the OH Valley mid-level low, convective temperatures have been breached across the Upper OH Valley. This suggests ongoing cells in southern WV should intensify/increase in coverage by mid-afternoon as they spread north-northwestward, yielding a corridor of severe hail/damaging wind potential. Farther north, greater cloud coverage/ongoing showers may result in a more marginal/sporadic hail/wind threat. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41897993 41427906 40647907 40197947 39658020 38008111 37758192 38028226 39908255 40718230 41868070 41897993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0224 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051605Z - 051800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon along/ahead of a weak front from central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Monitoring for a potential severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level jetlet, curling around the southeast quadrant of the broader OH Valley low and attendant trough, will support potential for occasional mid-level updraft rotation along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone across central NC into south-central VA. Initial storm development is underway along this boundary, with more isolated activity expected near the southern NC coast. With eastern extent, hodograph structure will be less favorable as it progressively becomes more of a J to reverse-L shape. But this weakness in the hodograph may be compensated by greater boundary-layer heating and MLCAPE with eastern extent. Overall setup is expected to support north-northeastward moving storms with a mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35137940 36627911 37867899 38317880 38367782 37697710 37037701 36087724 35297715 34927698 34697723 34447773 34377814 34877908 35137940 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more