Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more