Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will be in place across the High Plains on Sunday on the back side of the large-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. At the same time, southerly low-level flow will maintain a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F) across parts of eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values within this corridor. As a result, thunderstorms are likely to develop over higher terrain during the afternoon and could spread southeast into the moist axis. Some uncertainty exists with regards to early-day convection and cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures may remain rather cool and could hamper stronger destabilization. However, if storms can develop and become sustained off the higher terrain, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells. Elongated forecast hodographs and cool 500 mb temperatures indicate hail could occur with any stronger sustained cells. If stronger heating/boundary layer mixing can occur, gusty winds also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will be in place across the High Plains on Sunday on the back side of the large-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. At the same time, southerly low-level flow will maintain a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F) across parts of eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values within this corridor. As a result, thunderstorms are likely to develop over higher terrain during the afternoon and could spread southeast into the moist axis. Some uncertainty exists with regards to early-day convection and cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures may remain rather cool and could hamper stronger destabilization. However, if storms can develop and become sustained off the higher terrain, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells. Elongated forecast hodographs and cool 500 mb temperatures indicate hail could occur with any stronger sustained cells. If stronger heating/boundary layer mixing can occur, gusty winds also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will be in place across the High Plains on Sunday on the back side of the large-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. At the same time, southerly low-level flow will maintain a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F) across parts of eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values within this corridor. As a result, thunderstorms are likely to develop over higher terrain during the afternoon and could spread southeast into the moist axis. Some uncertainty exists with regards to early-day convection and cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures may remain rather cool and could hamper stronger destabilization. However, if storms can develop and become sustained off the higher terrain, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells. Elongated forecast hodographs and cool 500 mb temperatures indicate hail could occur with any stronger sustained cells. If stronger heating/boundary layer mixing can occur, gusty winds also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday afternoon from the southern CA Peninsular Ranges northward over portions of the Great Basin and Sierra. The previous forecast has been adjusted southward to account for higher thunderstorm probabilities within monsoonal moisture and over the more receptive fuels within the Great Basin. Isolated strikes can't be completely ruled out within the previously forecast region over southern/central OR, but new NWP data suggests thunderstorm coverage will remain too low for a continuation of this area. An additional, small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was also included for the southern mountains of CA where ERC percentiles will remain above the 97th percentile tomorrow. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Along the western periphery of the ridge, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Sierra into the Northwest. Sufficient buoyancy will support isolated mostly dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening time frame. Given dry/receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are also expected across parts of southern CA into the Great Basin. However, deep monsoonal moisture will promote mixed wet/dry thunderstorms. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier rain cores, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221652Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters developing across northern Wisconsin may pose a localized severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon as they spread east into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a surface cold front across far eastern MN and northwest WI have shown signs of gradual intensification per MRMS and GOES IR imagery. While stronger mid/upper-level flow will likely remain displaced to the north/northwest, recent VWP observations from KDLH sampled 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 25-30 knots. This may promote some degree of organization of embedded cells within the larger cluster through early afternoon and cold pool consolidation/organization by mid/late afternoon. Muted daytime heating of a seasonably moist air mass in place downstream ahead of the front should promote a modest increase in MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon, which may also bolster convective intensity to some degree. In general, the expectation is that this activity will pose a threat for isolated hail and perhaps isolated to scattered damaging/severe gusts. There is some potential that a more widespread damaging wind threat could emerge if convective intensity/organization is more substantial than currently anticipated as hinted by a few morning CAM solutions. This scenario could warrant a targeted watch issuance later this afternoon, but based on current observations (ongoing cloud cover, delayed surface heating, etc...), this potential seems low. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46928988 47008938 46948915 46738878 46368856 45978854 45638862 45478902 45369271 45519319 45709343 46039340 46339293 46509196 46669115 46928988 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S. for Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest, enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains. A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 08/22/2025 Read more