Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...Update... No changes are required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel ridge will remain in place across much of the West, while a well-established monsoonal moisture plume persists across the Southwest into the Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing amid the monsoonal moisture will yield sufficient buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad region extending from the Sierra into the Great Basin and central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V profiles, characterized by 0.70 to 0.90 inch PW, will favor a mix of wet/dry high-based storms -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds over dry/receptive fuels. ...North-central Oregon... Along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the Southwest/Great Basin, a modest offshore pressure gradient will develop across the Northwest. As a result, breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds are expected amid 15-percent RH across north-central OR, with locally enhanced winds expected through the Columbia Gorge. Given dry fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Coastal New England... On the far western fringes of Hurricane Erin, dry/breezy northerly winds atop receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions across coastal New England during the afternoon. ...Southern California... An unseasonably hot and unstable air mass along with critically dry fuels will continue to promote elevated fire-weather conditions away from the coast in southern CA, despite only modest surface winds. Additionally, isolated high-based thunderstorms will pose a localized risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic winds away from any heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central and northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest, and across parts of Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Upper trough amplification will continue to occur over Manitoba/northern Ontario through tonight, with consequential height falls over the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will continue to advance southeastward regionally, with a semi-moist air mass preceding it. A consequential factor for portions of the region will be an MCS centered across far eastern South Dakota early this morning, which will continue to disturb the frontal zone and nearby warm sector for the first part of the day. This may especially be the case across southern Minnesota and vicinity. But on the periphery of the MCS-influenced corridor, potential severe storm development could occur by late afternoon, perhaps most likely across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but also across northwest Wisconsin/Upper Michigan where vertical shear will be stronger but with more modest buoyancy. Hail and damaging winds would be possible in both scenarios, but likely on a relatively isolated basis. ...Wyoming/Colorado and central High Plains... A subtle ridge-peripheral disturbance noted in water vapor imagery, along with strong surface heating, should aid thunderstorm development initially across Wyoming/Colorado. This activity should propagate east-southeast toward lower elevations in the presence of moist low-level upslope flow. Hail and wind are possible with this activity, especially within a corridor across interior/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central Colorado. ...Arizona... The upper high will shift west-northwestward through tonight, maintaining and potentially strengthening easterly mid-level winds across southern Arizona, in addition to the possibility of slightly cooler (degree or two C) mid-level temperatures. Lingering morning cloud cover should gradually abate into the afternoon, with a very hot/residually moist boundary layer contributing to widely scattered thunderstorm development, initially over higher terrain. West/southwestward spreading storms will pose the potential for strong wind gusts/blowing dust onto the desert floor. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central and northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest, and across parts of Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Upper trough amplification will continue to occur over Manitoba/northern Ontario through tonight, with consequential height falls over the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will continue to advance southeastward regionally, with a semi-moist air mass preceding it. A consequential factor for portions of the region will be an MCS centered across far eastern South Dakota early this morning, which will continue to disturb the frontal zone and nearby warm sector for the first part of the day. This may especially be the case across southern Minnesota and vicinity. But on the periphery of the MCS-influenced corridor, potential severe storm development could occur by late afternoon, perhaps most likely across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but also across northwest Wisconsin/Upper Michigan where vertical shear will be stronger but with more modest buoyancy. Hail and damaging winds would be possible in both scenarios, but likely on a relatively isolated basis. ...Wyoming/Colorado and central High Plains... A subtle ridge-peripheral disturbance noted in water vapor imagery, along with strong surface heating, should aid thunderstorm development initially across Wyoming/Colorado. This activity should propagate east-southeast toward lower elevations in the presence of moist low-level upslope flow. Hail and wind are possible with this activity, especially within a corridor across interior/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central Colorado. ...Arizona... The upper high will shift west-northwestward through tonight, maintaining and potentially strengthening easterly mid-level winds across southern Arizona, in addition to the possibility of slightly cooler (degree or two C) mid-level temperatures. Lingering morning cloud cover should gradually abate into the afternoon, with a very hot/residually moist boundary layer contributing to widely scattered thunderstorm development, initially over higher terrain. West/southwestward spreading storms will pose the potential for strong wind gusts/blowing dust onto the desert floor. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central and northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest, and across parts of Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Upper trough amplification will continue to occur over Manitoba/northern Ontario through tonight, with consequential height falls over the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will continue to advance southeastward regionally, with a semi-moist air mass preceding it. A consequential factor for portions of the region will be an MCS centered across far eastern South Dakota early this morning, which will continue to disturb the frontal zone and nearby warm sector for the first part of the day. This may especially be the case across southern Minnesota and vicinity. But on the periphery of the MCS-influenced corridor, potential severe storm development could occur by late afternoon, perhaps most likely across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but also across northwest Wisconsin/Upper Michigan where vertical shear will be stronger but with more modest buoyancy. Hail and damaging winds would be possible in both scenarios, but likely on a relatively isolated basis. ...Wyoming/Colorado and central High Plains... A subtle ridge-peripheral disturbance noted in water vapor imagery, along with strong surface heating, should aid thunderstorm development initially across Wyoming/Colorado. This activity should propagate east-southeast toward lower elevations in the presence of moist low-level upslope flow. Hail and wind are possible with this activity, especially within a corridor across interior/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central Colorado. ...Arizona... The upper high will shift west-northwestward through tonight, maintaining and potentially strengthening easterly mid-level winds across southern Arizona, in addition to the possibility of slightly cooler (degree or two C) mid-level temperatures. Lingering morning cloud cover should gradually abate into the afternoon, with a very hot/residually moist boundary layer contributing to widely scattered thunderstorm development, initially over higher terrain. West/southwestward spreading storms will pose the potential for strong wind gusts/blowing dust onto the desert floor. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central and northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest, and across parts of Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Upper trough amplification will continue to occur over Manitoba/northern Ontario through tonight, with consequential height falls over the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will continue to advance southeastward regionally, with a semi-moist air mass preceding it. A consequential factor for portions of the region will be an MCS centered across far eastern South Dakota early this morning, which will continue to disturb the frontal zone and nearby warm sector for the first part of the day. This may especially be the case across southern Minnesota and vicinity. But on the periphery of the MCS-influenced corridor, potential severe storm development could occur by late afternoon, perhaps most likely across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but also across northwest Wisconsin/Upper Michigan where vertical shear will be stronger but with more modest buoyancy. Hail and damaging winds would be possible in both scenarios, but likely on a relatively isolated basis. ...Wyoming/Colorado and central High Plains... A subtle ridge-peripheral disturbance noted in water vapor imagery, along with strong surface heating, should aid thunderstorm development initially across Wyoming/Colorado. This activity should propagate east-southeast toward lower elevations in the presence of moist low-level upslope flow. Hail and wind are possible with this activity, especially within a corridor across interior/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central Colorado. ...Arizona... The upper high will shift west-northwestward through tonight, maintaining and potentially strengthening easterly mid-level winds across southern Arizona, in addition to the possibility of slightly cooler (degree or two C) mid-level temperatures. Lingering morning cloud cover should gradually abate into the afternoon, with a very hot/residually moist boundary layer contributing to widely scattered thunderstorm development, initially over higher terrain. West/southwestward spreading storms will pose the potential for strong wind gusts/blowing dust onto the desert floor. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central and northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest, and across parts of Arizona. ...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Upper trough amplification will continue to occur over Manitoba/northern Ontario through tonight, with consequential height falls over the upper Great Lakes. A cold front will continue to advance southeastward regionally, with a semi-moist air mass preceding it. A consequential factor for portions of the region will be an MCS centered across far eastern South Dakota early this morning, which will continue to disturb the frontal zone and nearby warm sector for the first part of the day. This may especially be the case across southern Minnesota and vicinity. But on the periphery of the MCS-influenced corridor, potential severe storm development could occur by late afternoon, perhaps most likely across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but also across northwest Wisconsin/Upper Michigan where vertical shear will be stronger but with more modest buoyancy. Hail and damaging winds would be possible in both scenarios, but likely on a relatively isolated basis. ...Wyoming/Colorado and central High Plains... A subtle ridge-peripheral disturbance noted in water vapor imagery, along with strong surface heating, should aid thunderstorm development initially across Wyoming/Colorado. This activity should propagate east-southeast toward lower elevations in the presence of moist low-level upslope flow. Hail and wind are possible with this activity, especially within a corridor across interior/southeast Wyoming into northeast/east-central Colorado. ...Arizona... The upper high will shift west-northwestward through tonight, maintaining and potentially strengthening easterly mid-level winds across southern Arizona, in addition to the possibility of slightly cooler (degree or two C) mid-level temperatures. Lingering morning cloud cover should gradually abate into the afternoon, with a very hot/residually moist boundary layer contributing to widely scattered thunderstorm development, initially over higher terrain. West/southwestward spreading storms will pose the potential for strong wind gusts/blowing dust onto the desert floor. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a cyclonic-flow mid-level pattern will be in place across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Southwesterly flow is expected over the Northeast, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly in New England. Scattered storms are also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Plains within northwesterly flow. Any severe threat in these two areas will likely remain localized, mainly due to weak instability. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to be in place from the central and northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms, non severe in nature, would be possible each afternoon across parts of the Gulf Coast states and in the southern and central High Plains, along the southern and western periphery of the post-frontal airmass. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form over the lower Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Scattered thunderstorms could form in parts of the southern Plains and High Plains, but weak instability should limit any severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2025 Read more

MD 2001 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220457Z - 220730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with the stronger elevated storms that develop. DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357 44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826 45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220505Z - 220730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with the stronger elevated storms that develop. DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out. However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357 44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826 45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more