Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... Multiple subtle upper ridge-peripheral impulses and a belt of moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft will influence the region as low-level upslope flow increases late today within the post-frontal environment. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected initially over the mountains, with subsequent intensification as storms develop east-southeastward into a moderately unstable air mass, with buoyancy maximized near/immediately east of the urban corridor/I-25. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40+ kt effective shear will support the possibility of isolated supercells capable of large hail and some locally stronger wind gusts through early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping severe-storm potential minimal. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... Multiple subtle upper ridge-peripheral impulses and a belt of moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft will influence the region as low-level upslope flow increases late today within the post-frontal environment. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected initially over the mountains, with subsequent intensification as storms develop east-southeastward into a moderately unstable air mass, with buoyancy maximized near/immediately east of the urban corridor/I-25. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40+ kt effective shear will support the possibility of isolated supercells capable of large hail and some locally stronger wind gusts through early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping severe-storm potential minimal. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... Multiple subtle upper ridge-peripheral impulses and a belt of moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft will influence the region as low-level upslope flow increases late today within the post-frontal environment. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected initially over the mountains, with subsequent intensification as storms develop east-southeastward into a moderately unstable air mass, with buoyancy maximized near/immediately east of the urban corridor/I-25. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40+ kt effective shear will support the possibility of isolated supercells capable of large hail and some locally stronger wind gusts through early evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front as it moves across the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon. Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping severe-storm potential minimal. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A large-scale trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an area of surface high pressure remains dominant across much of the eastern half of the nation. Non-severe thunderstorms may develop on the western periphery of post-frontal airmass, over parts of the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible across parts of Oklahoma, where scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any severe threat will be marginal. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... From Friday into Saturday, northwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of much of the central and eastern part of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located over parts of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day. Deep-layer shear is forecast be relatively weak across most of the region from Friday into Saturday, suggesting that any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain over much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the north-central U.S., as a relative cool and dry airmass remains in place from the eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Great Lakes. A front is forecast to move through New England, along which isolated thunderstorm development is expected during the day. Instability near the front should remain weak, and the potential for severe storms appears low. In the central U.S., northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Monday. A slow-moving front is forecast over the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon near the front from south-central Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle. Along and near the front, instability is expected to remain weak, suggesting the severe potential should remain low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain over much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the north-central U.S., as a relative cool and dry airmass remains in place from the eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Great Lakes. A front is forecast to move through New England, along which isolated thunderstorm development is expected during the day. Instability near the front should remain weak, and the potential for severe storms appears low. In the central U.S., northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Monday. A slow-moving front is forecast over the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon near the front from south-central Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle. Along and near the front, instability is expected to remain weak, suggesting the severe potential should remain low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain over much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the north-central U.S., as a relative cool and dry airmass remains in place from the eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Great Lakes. A front is forecast to move through New England, along which isolated thunderstorm development is expected during the day. Instability near the front should remain weak, and the potential for severe storms appears low. In the central U.S., northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Monday. A slow-moving front is forecast over the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon near the front from south-central Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle. Along and near the front, instability is expected to remain weak, suggesting the severe potential should remain low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 08/23/2025 Read more