3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows an upper low over SD, with a
negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the Mid MO Valley.
Surface analysis places an occluded surface low associated with this
system over southeast ND, with an occluded front extending
southeastward to a triple point over far southeast SD. A cold front
extends south-southeastward from this front across far western IA
and into far northeast MO before arcing more southwestward across
far western MO and more southwestward across western OK. A warm
front extends easterward from this triple point across southern MN
and then more southeastward across southwest WI and northern IL.
These boundaries, including the occluded front, will all act in
tandem with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent to force
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
The ongoing storms from eastern SD into central MN are confirmation
of the buoyancy sampled in the 12Z MPX sounding. Expectation is for
instability to build across the region as heating and low-level
moisture advection occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Airmass
destabilization and thunderstorm development is anticipated first
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, the occluded front as it shifts
northward as both the primary surface low and triple point low shift
northwestward. Additional development is then anticipated farther
southeast along the warm front across WI. Storms that develop in the
vicinity of the occluded front will likely have elevated structures,
with large hail as the primary risk. Some isolated very large hail
(i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) is possible. Farther southeast,
the corridor along the warm front appears very favorable for
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. A locally higher tornado potential
may exist from central into southeastern WI from 18Z-22Z. Deeper
mixing is anticipated farther south into northern IL, but the
overall environment will still support robust, organized updrafts.
There may be some trend initially for these storms to quickly become
outflow dominant, but strengthening mid-level flow across the region
after 21Z should aid in maintaining a more organized mode. Upscale
growth into a organized MCS appears probable after 00Z, with the
potential for significant-severe gusts as this line moves eastward
in southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging gusts and isolated
hail will persist throughout the night across Lower MI and the
middle/upper OH Valley.
...Ozarks into the TN Valley...
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
across AR as a cold front pushes eastward across the region.
Moderate to strong flow aloft should allow for storms to move off
this boundary quickly into a strongly buoyant airmass downstream.
Warm air aloft could limit overall storm longevity during the
afternoon/early evening, but the warm/dry mid-levels are conducive
for producing strong outflows capable of damaging gusts. Whether or
not organization will occur along these outflows is uncertain, but a
conditional risk for continued damaging gusts exists into TN.
Additional thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight in the wake of the front. Persistent steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear will support large hail with some of these
storms.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Large-scale height rises are expected across the region, but
diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain this afternoon. Northwesterly
flow aloft will favor a southeastward storm motion within an
environment of moderate/locally strong instability. 35-45 kts of
northwesterly deep shear is anticipated, supporting supercell
structures and clusters, posing a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. The overall hodograph structure and resulting storm motion
appears favorable for some very large hail over 2" in diameter as
well.
..Mosier.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
The wheat crop was fairly variable from Manhattan to the north and westward. Some good yield potential was evident, amounting to 50 to 80 bushels per acre. All fields had some wheat streak mosaic virus. Crop conditions declined to the west. Crops leaves in Smith County were nearly rolling up.
Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 13, 2025
3 months ago
181
ABPZ20 KNHC 151305
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.
The list of names for 2025 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alvin AL-vin Mario MAR-ee-o
Barbara BAR-bruh Narda NAHR-duh
Cosme COS-may Octave AHK-tayv
Dalila dah-LY-lah Priscilla prih-SIH-luh
Erick EHR-ik Raymond RAY-mund
Flossie FLOSS-ee Sonia SOHN-yah
Gil gill Tico TEE-koh
Henriette hen-ree-ETT Velma VELL-muh
Ivo EE-voh Wallis WAHL-lis
Juliette joo-lee-ET Xina ZEE-nah
Kiko KEE-ko York york
Lorena low-RAY-na Zelda ZEL-dah
A full list of eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone names
and pronunciations can be found at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 72 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and
updated products for the 2025 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2025.pdf.
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available
via X when select NHC products are issued. Information about our
east and central Pacific X feed (@NHC_Pacific) is available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/socialmedia
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper
Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, and very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are also
expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks and in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A deepening surface low will gradually consolidate as it moves north
across the eastern Dakotas today, and a warm front will lift north
through the OH Valley and into WI/Lower MI late this afternoon. As
strong large-scale ascent develops in association with a
northeast-moving/negatively-tilted upper trough and left exit region
of a 300-mb jet streak, rapid thunderstorm development, or
re-intensification of ongoing storms, is expected from near the
surface low east/southeast along an arcing occluded/cold front over
central MN/western WI/northeast IL. A broken line of semi-discrete
cells is anticipated within a strongly unstable and amply-sheared
environment supporting supercell storm structures. Large hail,
possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be
possible in addition to damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear will
support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the
risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as
low-level shear increases. Storms should tend to merge into clusters
or line segments with time, especially across southern lower
MI/northern IN/OH, where significant severe wind potential will
exist with an eastward moving complex of storms. The 30% wind/sig
severe wind area was extended east into southeast lower MI based on
latest hi-res guidance.
...Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have developed along the Red River in southeast
OK/western AR this morning, along the southern periphery of stronger
mid-level flow and with moderate elevated buoyancy. Although
larger-scale forcing remains nebulous, these storms may continue to
intensify and become surface based with time with the onset of
diurnal destabilization. Strong southwesterly flow will contribute
to ample deep-layer shear for supercells or a small cluster. Severe
hail and perhaps wind will be the primary severe hazards as storms
move across AR towards the mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Slight
(Level 2) Risk has been extended southwest across northern AR for
this potential.
...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in response to
diurnal heating and across the higher terrain this afternoon, and
move southeast within an environment of moderate/locally strong
surface-based instability and 35-40 kts of northwesterly deep shear.
In this parameter space, supercell structures and clusters will be
possible and pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Trends
in the 00z HREF and early morning hi-res guidance were the basis for
extending the Slight (Level 2) Risk southeast across portions of
northeast NC.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/15/2025
Read more3 months ago
MD 0785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHERN MN...EXTREME NORTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Areas affected...Southeast SD...southern MN...extreme northeast
NE/northwest IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151223Z - 151400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for strong to isolated severe storms may continue
through the morning.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is ongoing this morning
across south-central MN. This system has persisted longer than most
guidance would suggest, and is likely being aided by persistent
moisture transport associated with a strong low-level jet. While
this system remains relatively disorganized with outflow tending to
outpace the deeper convection, localized strong wind gusts and hail
will be possible, especially where new updrafts develop and briefly
intensify behind the outflow.
To the southwest, renewed storm development is underway across
southeast SD and far northeast NE, immediately in advance of a
compact but vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moving across
north-central NE/south-central SD. Rather strong low-level
southeasterly flow will maintain moisture transport into the region
through the morning ahead of a cold front, and development of
somewhat more organized convection will be possible with time. In
the short term, convection will tend to be somewhat elevated, but
could become rooted closer to the surface later this morning,
especially with southeast extent. Some hail and strong-gust
potential could evolve if convection is able to deepen and intensify
within this regime.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated over the next 1-2
hours, short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely. Trends will
continue to be monitored for intensification with time this morning.
..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
LAT...LON 43759861 44979732 45289595 45409490 45409384 45129316
44599296 44179290 43649334 43539415 43479504 43269575
42909627 42609653 42449683 42619714 42779752 42999832
43759861
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more3 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151147
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.
The list of names for 2025 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alvin AL-vin Mario MAR-ee-o
Barbara BAR-bruh Narda NAHR-duh
Cosme COS-may Octave AHK-tayv
Dalila dah-LY-lah Priscilla prih-SIH-luh
Erick EHR-ik Raymond RAY-mund
Flossie FLOSS-ee Sonia SOHN-yah
Gil gill Tico TEE-koh
Henriette hen-ree-ETT Velma VELL-muh
Ivo EE-voh Wallis WAHL-lis
Juliette joo-lee-ET Xina ZEE-nah
Kiko KEE-ko York york
Lorena low-RAY-na Zelda ZEL-dah
A full list of eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclone names
and pronunciations can be found at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_epac.pdf
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 72 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel
watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found
under WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and
updated products for the 2025 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2025.pdf.
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available
via X when select NHC products are issued. Information about our
east and central Pacific X feed (@NHC_Pacific) is available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/socialmedia
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
