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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely across parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Friday afternoon into Friday night. This may include a few intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes. During the evening into the overnight hours, this will include an upscale growing and organizing bowing line of storms posing a risk for strong, damaging winds and a continuing risk for tornadoes. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across portions of the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley... ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest and attendant shortwave trough will develop east/northeast across much of the Midwest and TN Valley. A swath of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will accompany this system. Forecast guidance shows a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet spreading across the Mid-MS to OH Valley, while 850-700 mb increases to 40-60 kt by midday. This will result in supercell wind profiles, support widespread organized convection. Favorable deep-layer shear will extend downstream into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity as well. At the surface, low pressure will shift east from northern MN into the Upper Great Lakes. A warm from southern MO into the OH Valley Friday morning is forecast to lift northward through the afternoon, allowing rich boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to overspread much of the Lower OH Valley, with a large warm sector in place across a broad region from east TX to the Great Lakes and eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Corridors of moderate to strong destabilization during the day and into the nighttime hours will support several areas of severe storms from east Texas into much of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, some of which could be significant. ...Mid-MS Valley into the OH/TN Valley Vicinity... Forecast guidance depicts potential for remnant convection from Day 1/Thu ongoing across KY or TN Friday morning. Current expectation is that this activity will dissipate or weaken as it shifts east toward the central Appalachians. Strong warm advection should allow for rapid airmass recovery in the way of any morning thunderstorm activity. By midday, a very moist (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, fostering MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg from southeast MO northward to around the I-70 corridor and east toward the IN/KY. One or more clusters of convection is expected to develop by early afternoon within the strong warm advection regime and as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper trough and an eastward-advancing cold front extending from eastern IA/western MO into central OK/TX around midday. Supercell wind profiles with enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km within a volatile thermodynamic environment suggests convection will rapidly intensify. Any convection that remains discrete will pose a risk for very large hail (up to 3.5 inches), tornadoes (a few may be strong), and damaging gusts. With time, consolidation of thunderstorm clusters is expected and an organized bow is forecast to move across the OH/TN Valley region. Intense, damaging gusts greater than 70 kt will be possible once this occurs. Additional convection is expected to develop during the evening ahead of the advancing cold front from northern AR into western TN/KY. If this activity can remain discrete, supercells will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Eventually, this activity should become linear, but will still have an attendant wind/tornado risk, with a gradual weakening trend during the overnight hours expected across MS/AL/GA. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of PA and spread east/southeast through early afternoon as a lead upper shortwave impulse moves across the Northeast. Moistening and heating ahead of this activity will support moderate to strong destabilization, especially from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward across the VA/NC Piedmont. The initial round of thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally strong gusts and hail before moving offshore the NJ/DE/MD coast during the early afternoon. During the evening/overnight hours, a mature bowing MCS is expected to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of this system across the region, but portions of the area may need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks. ...WI/MI... Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the surface low and cold front during the afternoon and evening. Cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak to moderate instability despite more modest boundary layer moisture. Favorable shear will support organized convection capable of isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... A more conditional risk of significant severe thunderstorms will exist across northeast TX into southern AR/northwest LA. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, and forecast guidance suggests capping should erode along/ahead of the surface dryline. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary is not expected to be strong, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous, with neutral height tendencies expected. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected to develop during/just after peak heating. Supercell wind profiles, with long/straight hodographs are apparent in forecast soundings. Furthermore, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for large hail, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow winds. Isolated significant hail (to 2.5 inches) is possible in addition to sporadic damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/15/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 15 17:24:02 UTC 2025.