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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 0831 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 269... FOR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Western West Virginia...Southern and Eastern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 269... Valid 170312Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will continue over the next 2 to 3 hours. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. As severe storms move toward the edge of WW 269, an extension or new watch may be required. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of severe storms extending from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the storms, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from middle Tennessee northward into central and eastern Kentucky. The storms will continue to move into this instability, which will help maintain updraft intensity. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Nashville has strong directional shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 700 m2/s2. This shear environment will continue to support a tornado threat with supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with the most intense supercells. Also, the RAP shows a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates extending eastward across Tennessee and southern Kentucky, suggesting that large hail will continue to be possible with the supercells. Over the last couple of hours, a gradual transition to a linear mode has occurred ahead of a cold front. This line will catch up to the more discrete cells. As this happens, the wind-damage threat will increase and become more dominant. Severe gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible along the faster moving parts of the line. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36168340 37148211 37908175 38468189 38658238 38518287 37988376 37388523 36958743 36668807 36348817 36118765 36088558 36168340 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0274 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more