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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is clearly evident in water-vapor imagery just west of the Baja Peninsula early this morning. This feature appears to be handled well by latest model guidance, and is forecast to advance into southern AZ/northwest Mexico by sunrise, and to near the NM/TX border by 18/00z. There is some indication that a weak disturbance will translate into far west TX just ahead of the main trough, and this weak feature may prove to be the more meaningful disturbance in regards to severe thunderstorm development later today...especially across north TX. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp demarcation in moisture along a stalled surface front across TX. Surface dew points in the lower 70s will easily advance north with this boundary as it returns across the southern Plains today. Extreme buoyancy will develop across the warm sector ahead of the aforementioned disturbance, and more pronounced short wave. 00z model guidance is fairly consistent regarding early-day convective initiation along the dry line. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH from SJT-ABI by 17-18z, and robust convection will likely develop by early afternoon. Deep-layer flow is more than sufficient for supercells and cool, steep lapse rates favor very large hail (>3 inches possible) with the strongest storms. Given the strong, consistent signal in the 00z model guidance, will increase severe probabilities across much of north TX to account for scattered-numerous supercells/clusters spreading toward the DFW Metroplex by late afternoon. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, some tornado potential will likely exist with the more organized supercells. Farther north across OK into southern KS, substantial destabilization is expected as 70s dew points spread rapidly north as a warm front establishes itself across southern KS overnight. Precip signal is not particularly noteworthy along the dry line over OK, but weak CINH does cause concern for isolated supercell development. Storm potential appears somewhat greater across southern KS near/after sunset as moisture returns to this region. Some consideration was given to higher tornado probabilities along a narrow wedge of northwest OK into southwest KS near the boundary for this possibility. This may need to be adjusted in later outlooks. ...Northeast... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. High-level diffluent flow aloft will overspread much of NY into New England as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out with stronger supercells. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 05/17/2025 Read more