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MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of far east-central Colorado into western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192217Z - 200015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will remain possible for the next few hours. Given the localized/isolated nature of the severe risk, a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Beneath the large-scale trough now centered over the central Rockies/High Plains, cold midlevel temperatures atop a deeply mixed boundary layer are contributing to steep deep-layer lapse rates across east-central CO into western KS -- with around 800 J/kg MLCAPE. With around 30 kt of effective shear, marginal supercell structures will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe gusts (one earlier report of 2.5 inch hail). However, given the somewhat marginal deep-layer shear and buoyancy, the overall severe risk is expected to remain too sporadic/isolated for a watch at this time. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39110192 39010058 39189998 39229924 39019888 38469896 37609956 37519983 37490150 37860231 38510251 38920235 39110192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0297 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0297 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 297 TORNADO AR OK TX 192350Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Arkansas Southeast and Eastern Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Multiple supercells and clusters will spread northeastward this evening and into the early overnight hours. Several tornadoes appear likely given a rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, and a couple of these should be strong to intense (EF2-3+). Some upscale growth is anticipated later this evening, with an increasing threat for numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. Large hail up to 2.5-3.5 inches in diameter also appears likely with embedded supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Durant OK to 20 miles northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...WW 296... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-043- 045-049-059-061-073-079-085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121- 125-127-131-133-139-149-161-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-209- 200040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CLAY COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE Read more

WW 294 TORNADO KS MO 191840Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Scattered severe storms including a few supercells are expected, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Saint Joseph MO to 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-117-121-123-125-135-159-173-175- 179-181-185-200040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-041-079-081-115-121-129-171-197-211-200040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON GRUNDY HARRISON LINN MACON MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 296 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 192045Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms over northern Missouri will spread northward across the watch this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Lamoni IA to 25 miles south of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BIE TO 25 E OFK. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-200040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-053-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-155-177-200040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DODGE DOUGLAS GAGE JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 293 TORNADO IA NE 191810Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across parts of eastern Nebraska, in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Large hail and damaging winds are possible in the strongest cells, along with a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Columbus NE to 10 miles southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 19 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 0884 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 292...295... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast into east-central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...295... Valid 192157Z - 192330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292, 295 continues. SUMMARY...Storms over south-central/southeast Oklahoma should spread northeastward into an increasingly favorable corridor for supercell intensification over the next few hours -- with a corresponding increase in tornado potential. DISCUSSION...A somewhat messy convective evolution with embedded supercell clusters is evolving from north-central TX into south-central/southeast OK as of 2150Z. Ahead of this activity, a relatively pristine warm/moist sector is in place -- characterized by lower 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume (sampled by earlier special soundings across the region). This is contributing to upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40-45 kt low-level jet over the warm sector is yielding clockwise-curved hodographs, with around 270 m2/s2 effective SRH. This should support a gradual intensification of the ongoing convection into semi-discrete supercells over the next few hours, and ample residence time in the high-helicity air will favor an increasing risk of tornadoes (some of which could become strong to intense if a semi-discrete supercell-mode can evolve). Very large hail and damaging winds will also remain a concern with these storms. ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34209715 34519707 35219637 35509597 35609539 35569498 35399466 34999461 34559488 33999564 33729635 33759681 33979713 34209715 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-192340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC023-025-037-053-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153- 155-159-167-177-192340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CASS COLFAX DODGE DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0883 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 292... FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of east central and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 292... Valid 192038Z - 192245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues. SUMMARY...Long-lived discrete supercell development accompanied by potential for a couple of strong tornadoes remains possible, while spreading across the I-40 into I-44 corridors of northeastern Oklahoma through 5-7 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...A clustering of strong to severe storms, including a couple of sustained tornado producing supercells continues to develop north/northeastward, within a seasonably moist and moderately unstable warm sector, well east of the dryline. This has been supported by a weak lead mid-level perturbation progressing toward the Ozark Plateau. The supercells are generally focused along/west of a strengthening (40+ kt) 850 mb jet axis, and now within an area of stronger surface pressure falls (including 2-3+ mb/2 hourly, evident in 20Z surface observations). As long as the supercells remain more or less discrete, the environment remains conducive to additional tornado development, with perhaps some increase in potential for a strong tornado or two into early evening. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560 34959621 35199669 35559662 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 ..WEINMAN..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087- 091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 ..WEINMAN..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087- 091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY Read more

WW 292 TORNADO AR OK 191705Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon across central and eastern Oklahoma, spreading into northwest Arkansas by early evening. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Bartlesville OK to 10 miles southwest of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-043- 045-049-059-061-073-079-085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121- 125-127-131-133-139-149-161-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-209- 192340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CLAY COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-117-121-123-125-135-159-173-175- 179-181-185-192340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-041-079-081-115-121-129-171-197-211-192340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON GRUNDY HARRISON LINN MACON MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0881 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 293...294... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska to northeast Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 293...294... Valid 192012Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 293, 294 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes continues across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas, though a couple of localized corridors of higher tornado potential are becoming apparent. DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a cold front/confluence axis across southeast NE continues to intensify, and a few cells have begun to show signs of persistent mid-level rotation based on KUEX velocity imagery. Additional cells continue to develop along the boundary, so storm coverage is expected to increase over the next 1-2 hours. Ambient vorticity along the strongly confluent boundary coupled with strong, organizing updrafts deepening atop the boundary should support a tornado threat for the next few hours, though tornado strength/longevity may be modulated by destructive storm interactions. Regardless, a large hail threat will continue with 1 inch hail recently reported. Further southeast into northeast KS, deep convection is developing along the dryline per GOES imagery and latest lightning data. Modifying an 18 UTC OAX sounding based on warm sector observations suggests that sufficient buoyancy and low-level helicity is in place to support STP values up to 2 downstream of the developing storms. Strong cross-boundary flow should promote supercellular storm modes with a strong tornado and very large hail threat for the next couple of hours along the KS/NE border. ..Moore.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39049688 39759719 40159748 40509797 40679812 41019816 41659808 41859787 41929745 41829693 41549639 41229606 40799585 40409571 39689567 39369586 39199614 39059655 39049688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0882 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Southern Iowa into northeast Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 192031Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving out of northern Missouri will pose a severe hail risk for parts of southern Iowa and northeast Missouri over the next few hours. Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues to rapidly develop northward across northern Missouri and is spreading into south-central Iowa within a zone of strong warm air advection between 925-850 mb. Despite being elevated in nature, MUCAPE and effective shear downstream across IA and northeast MO remains very favorable for organized convection (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55 knots respectively). Storm mode will likely remain a mix of supercells and clusters, but intense updrafts will be capable of producing severe hail, most likely between 1 to 2 inches diameter. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address this threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 39819311 40369357 40649400 40989461 41159510 41409533 41699527 41889507 42099451 42099374 41979301 41619211 40799143 40319138 40019158 39799184 39749239 39709279 39819311 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more