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WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-192240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC003-011-023-025-035-037-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-119- 121-125-127-131-133-139-141-143-147-151-153-155-159-167-177-185- 192240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUTLER CASS CLAY COLFAX DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE PIERCE PLATTE POLK RICHARDSON SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0880 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0880 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas and adjacent portions of Mississippi...Tennessee...and Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191934Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection developing across northeast Arkansas/parts of the mid-Mississippi River Valley may sufficiently intensify to pose a hail/wind threat through late afternoon. Coverage of strong/severe storms should remain too limited for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, shallow convection has percolated across northeast AR as temperatures warm into the mid 80s amid low to mid 70 dewpoints. Within the last 15 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows a few deeper towers developing, suggesting that this convection is beginning to overcome lingering MLCIN and fully realizing the high-buoyancy environment (MLCAPE estimated between 2500-3000 J/kg). 30-40 knot flow between 5-6 km sampled by regional VWPs is supporting bulk shear values around 30 knots, which should be sufficient to support a few stronger/severe cells through late afternoon. Large hail should be the primary concern with deeper/stronger cells, though numerous storms in close proximity may promote destructive storm interactions and/or some degree of clustering with an more pronounced damaging wind threat. In general, severe storm coverage should remain sufficiently limited due to weak forcing for ascent to preclude watch issuance at this time (though a more robust/widespread severe threat is expected to emerge later tonight). ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34469078 34629113 34969136 35359147 35839131 36389100 36639061 36678997 36548966 36308948 36068940 35688945 35248964 34738998 34499016 34469078 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-043- 045-049-059-061-073-079-085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121- 125-127-131-133-139-149-161-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-209- 192240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CLAY COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-117-121-123-125-135-159-173-175- 179-181-185-192240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-041-079-081-115-121-129-171-197-211-192240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON GRUNDY HARRISON LINN MACON MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881 ..MOORE..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-043- 045-049-059-061-073-079-085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121- 125-127-131-133-139-149-161-173-177-191-197-201-205-207-209- 192140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BROWN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CLAY COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881 ..MOORE..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-192140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC003-011-023-025-035-037-053-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-119- 121-125-127-131-133-139-141-143-147-151-153-155-159-167-177-185- 192140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BUTLER CASS CLAY COLFAX DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE PIERCE PLATTE POLK RICHARDSON Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0296 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0879 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 292... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of north central Texas into south central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 292... Valid 191845Z - 192045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying supercells increasingly probable through 4-7 PM CDT, initially posing a risk for large to giant hail, before the risk for a couple of strong tornadoes increases toward early evening. A new tornado watch is likely across parts of north central Texas. DISCUSSION...Even with downward mixing of momentum, within the more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer to the west of the dryline, west-southwesterly surface gusts remain relatively modest, as a significant mid-level trough begins to pivot northeast of the southern high plains. However, as this trough gradually takes on more of a negative tilt, strongest mid/upper forcing for ascent within its base is forecast to overspread the dryline across the Red River vicinity through 21-00Z. Sustained intensifying thunderstorm development may now be underway along the sharpening dryline to the southwest of Wichita Falls TX. This seems likely to persist, as inhibition continues to erode with further insolation and cooling aloft. A notable further increase in number of storms seems probable with the forcing for ascent, particularly focused south of Chickasha OK into the Mineral Wells TX vicinity, before spreading northeastward/eastward. Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE approaching 4000 j/kg will probably support a few intense supercells, in the presence of strongly sheared 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Toward 20/00Z, initially modest low-level hodographs may begin to enlarge and become more conducive to tornado potential across the Red River vicinity near/east of the Ardmore vicinity. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34389814 35019760 35149676 34669616 33609625 32479794 32519880 33009921 34389814 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-121-147-181-237-277-337-363-367-429-497-503-192140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-121-147-181-237-277-337-363-367-429-497-503-192140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-121-147-181-237-277-337-363-367-429-497-503-192140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-121-147-181-237-277-337-363-367-429-497-503-192140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 295 TORNADO TX 191905Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will intensify along a dryline over western North Texas this afternoon and track eastward across the Red River Valley. Very large hail and tornadoes are the main concerns. Strong tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Mineral Wells TX to 10 miles northeast of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087- 091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-192140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031-033-035-037-041- 047-049-051-053-061-063-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-083-085-087- 091-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-192140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more