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WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 572 TORNADO CO KS NE 112045Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells will develop into far eastern Colorado with all severe hazards possible. These storms will likely consolidate and evolve into a bowing MCS that accelerates east along the Kansas-Nebraska border. This will yield an increasing risk for significant severe wind gusts later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Imperial NE to 25 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569...WW 570...WW 571... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MLS TO 50 N MLS TO 30 SW OLF TO 25 WNW OLF TO 35 NE GGW TO 60 NNE GGW. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-055-079-083-085-109-120440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MLS TO 50 N MLS TO 30 SW OLF TO 25 WNW OLF TO 35 NE GGW TO 60 NNE GGW. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-055-079-083-085-109-120440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 02:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 03:24:28 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120248 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become a remnant low by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 the center of Nine-E was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

MD 1711 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 571... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Areas affected...southeastern Montana...far northern Wyoming...and western/central South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 571... Valid 120245Z - 120345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 571 continues. SUMMARY...Portions of WW 571 will need to be extended for a few more hours to address the ongoing severe threats in the WW areas. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective clusters/linear complexes continue to forward-propagate eastward across remaining portions of WW 571 - one cluster over southeastern MT just east of Billings and another near /south of PHP. The pre-convective environments ahead of these storms remain supportive of all modes of severe weather, though hail and wind are the main threats given storm mode. The linear complex in Montana has a history of severe wind gusts and significant hail, and although substantial overturning/stabilization has occurred across western South Dakota and vicinity, this stabilized air will probably not impact the ongoing severe MCS in that area for the next couple of hours or so. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46910705 46960592 46440354 45540187 44310104 43669992 43299961 43059984 42930092 43170166 43950191 44820233 45290376 45210476 44940579 44740629 44580682 44830762 45180803 45670820 46410774 46680741 46910705 Read more

The North Hills Fire is 100% contained and on patrol. A significant thundershower occurred over the fire area. There is potential for flash floods and debris flow in the burn scar. https://www.lccountymt.gov/des.html Occasional smoke and/or dust devils may be visible in the future. The North Hills Fire will continue to be

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more