Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a couple of shortwaves migrate through the area. Farther south, weak ridging will remain in place across the Southwest. In the East, broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place. ...Eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming... Surface flow in this region will be slightly stronger compared to prior days owing to 1) stronger mid-level flow (40-50 kts) and 2) vertical mixing processes. This stronger (15-25 mph) surface flow will occur within areas of dry fuels, with RH values flirting with critical thresholds (around 15% or so) for a few hours in the afternoon/early evening. These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather, though locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out especially in terrain-favored areas that typically experience locally stronger wind speeds. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic. ...Central High Plains... Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ. ...Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast... Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/14/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will gradually amplify across the CONUS today as a ridge maintains its strength across the Southwest and a broad, low-amplitude trough deepens across the East. This pattern will maintain a belt of enhanced mid-level flow from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and southeastward through the Midwest. Most of this flow will be displaced from areas of dry fuels across the West, with localized exceptions being portions of eastern Idaho into southwestern Wyoming. Briefly elevated fire weather can be expected in these areas as breezy (15 mph) and dry (15-25% RH) conditions develop during peak heating hours. These conditions are expected to be too brief to necessitate highlights for this outlook period. Elsewhere, relatively weak wind speeds across dry fuels will preclude the need for any highlights today. ..Cook.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

140
ABPZ20 KNHC 140517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

725
ABNT20 KNHC 140504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Brazos County commissioners approved a 90-day burn ban prohibiting all outdoor burning effective Aug. 13. The neighboring counties of Milam and Robertson also adopted burn bans recently. Statewide, 104 Texas counties banned outdoor burning, due to dry conditions. Bryan-College Station Eagle (Texas), Aug. 13, 2019

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E P28 TO 30 WSW ICT. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC079-173-191-140540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARVEY SEDGWICK SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 580 SEVERE TSTM KS 132310Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm complex, now becoming well-organized over northwestern Kansas with a history of measured severe wind, should sweep southeastward across the watch area through this evening. The main concern will be severe gusts, though isolated large hail is possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles northwest of Liberal KS to 50 miles southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 577...WW 578...WW 579... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW OKC TO 40 ESE P28. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC047-053-071-073-083-103-140540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN NOBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM OK 140155Z - 140700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and northwestern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 855 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Though likely past peak by then, a bowing complex of thunderstorms with a substantial pressure/thermal perturbations in Kansas still may be producing severe gusts as it enters northern Oklahoma. This activity should weaken as it moves into a progressively more-stable low- and middle-level air mass toward the southern fringe of the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Alva OK to 50 miles south southwest of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32040. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E P28 TO 5 W HUT. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC077-079-095-113-155-173-191-140450- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MCPHERSON RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CSM TO 25 NE AVK. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-011-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-140450- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

This is the final 209, this fire will be called controlled

WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE LAA TO 25 SSE LBL TO 25 WSW P28 TO 35 NNW P28 TO 25 S RSL TO 35 WSW SLN. ..SMITH..08/14/19 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-053-077-079-095-113-129-151-155-159-173-175-185- 189-191-140350- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MCPHERSON MORTON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more