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SPC Aug 10, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 11 months ago

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5 years 11 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5 years 11 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a small low pressure
system is located about 100 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
This disturbance remains disorganized and the thunderstorm activity
is limited at this time. However, environmental conditions could
still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days
while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NHC Webmaster